How to max out this Double Gameweek

Stay for another look at that penalty tantrum

Apr 17, 2024

***DOUBLE GAMEWEEK 34 DEADLINE: SATURDAY - 13:30 GMT***

Every now and again, there’s a decision that can pretty much make the whole pain of an FPL season worthwhile. Just ask anyone who captained Palmer. One of the best single-gameweek FPL performances from the guy that is single-handedly dragging Chelsea’s season from mediocrity - not even an insane decision by Madueke and Jackson to have a row over taking a penalty could deny Palmer his fourth goal of the game. He now has as many goals as Erling Haaland. He joins the FPL Elite - congrats to all those Palmer captainers out there.

Now it’s all about this week’s big Double Gameweek. If you’re playing the Free Hit chip or just making transfers, let’s look at how we can max out the points.

Got a transfer dilemma? Gone Double Gameweek Blind? Email me: fplislife@substack.com

Fixture congestion is an issue this week

Here we, here we go! The first of two big Double Gameweeks is here. Arsenal and Liverpool are the two big teams involved and we’ll go through their options in detail. The other team to mention is Crystal Palace, who have two pretty good home games after their Anfield victory. So most Free Hit/planned teams for this Double Gameweek will probably be: Liverpool x 3, Arsenal x 3, Palace x 3 + 2 others. But this is very much a week to look at line-ups in the European games - both Liverpool & Arsenal have a lot of games in this period, so rest and rotation could be a thing.

Crystal Palace - the third team

Let’s start with the least sexy of the three teams that are the main focus this week. Palace have some obvious attackers in contention. That’s partly because Eze and Olise are always FPL options when fit - and Mateta has been hitting form (it always used to be a lottery who Palace would play upfront). But it’s also down to the poor defence away stats of their opponents West Ham (17th for shots conceded/expected goals against (xGA)) and Newcastle (14th for shots conceded, 19th for xGA). Eze may be an outside captain shout for the daring.

They do have a couple of defensive options, too - the obvious one is Muñoz, who is playing an attacking role. I’ve seen some go for Mitchell. Basically, Muñoz has the goal threat, Mitchell is your up and down assist threat guy.

Liverpool… & the Trent Gamble

Attack: They’ve hit a wobble, but the attacking data is still good (highest xG over the last six games), so most Free Hit teams will want at least two attackers. Expected Goal Involvement data is below. Seeing the side vs Atalanta on Thursday is *CRUCIAL* as Liverpool have a very congested fixture list. It’s worth saying it’s unlikely any player will get 180 minutes in this Double Gameweek - even Salah, who will be the big captain option this week. The second best attacker is between Nuñez, Diaz and Jota, who is now an option again and will hit the minutes of the others. If you think Jota will play, he’s a big option as he plays through the middle and has a high points ceiling. If Jota is largely rested vs Atalanta, that makes him tempting. We all know the story with Darwin - the data is great, the eye test is infuriating. Diaz seems to have become integral, but doesn’t have the same goal threat.

Defence: The news that Conor Bradley is set to miss 2 to 3 weeks will prompt a lot of people to take the gamble on Trent, who’s coming back from injury. Remember there is still Gomez as a threat to his minutes - and this is definitely where you’ll want to see how much Trent plays on Thursday vs Atalanta. If he plays a full 90 minutes, he suddenly becomes a minutes doubt. But we all know what Trent can do. Remember Robertson is also back and looked hungry vs Palace. Van Dijk is the safe mins option.

Forced to choose, my top three Liverpool on Free Hit would be: 1. Salah, 2. Trent (with the caveats above), 3. Nuñez.

Arsenal: attack vs defence

There’s a big choice to be made with Arsenal - do you go Double Defence or Double Attack? Double Defence (Gabriel + Raya/Saliba) will be most popular with non-Free Hitters, because that is how a lot of teams have been set up for weeks. And it’s no surprise - their defensive data is by far the best, even compared to Man City. And in this particular Double Gameweek, there aren’t that many great defences to choose from - so I suspect most Free Hitters will go this way, too. White does have a higher points ceiling & looks fun, but remember the threat from Tomiyasu is there. Wednesday’s line-up & minutes vs Bayern will be significant to examine.

So if you’re looking for upside, those going for it may see Double Arsenal Attack as a good gamble. That really means Saka plus one other. The stats are clear that the other is Havertz - he’s had more big chances than Saka in recent games. But if you’re going for security, Odegaard is the minutes man. Here are the attackers, ranked by non-penalty Expected Goal Involvement (NPxGI):

Pep’s on to the leakers…

I hate team leaks that come just before FPL deadlines - they favour people able to keep across them as the deadline approaches and it tilts the playing field. So it was interesting over this Gameweek that apparently reliable leak sources suddenly started getting things wrong… and Pep gave this reply when asked about “late changes”, which suggests he’s on the the leakers. Have clubs been giving out incorrect info to find the moles?! Leaks are probably here to stay, but it will make some think twice.

Differential options…

So if you max out on the three teams we’ve looked at, you’re still left with a couple of slots. I suspect that a lot of non-Free Hit people will stick with Haaland vs Brighton(a) as a single Gameweek player - and those who are not Wildcarding next week should remember not to go Double Gameweek Blind. If you’re not Wildcarding next week, it’s not obvious you want to be bringing in Arsenal/Liverpool players for -4 points hits.

So what are the players on the Double Gameweek fringes who could be options? Well, Brereton Diaz is getting some buzz - he has great fixtures, is playing upfront and has 4 goals and 2 assists in his last 7 starts, but plays for Sheffield Utd. From Wolves, Cunha is a real option - his Expected Goal data over the last six matches is actually better than the more popular Solanke. Then there’s fullback Ait Nouri - if there’s news he’s back, he’s instantly a great option as he’s been playing on the wing. Injuries at Everton have really hit their options… Pickford may get save points if you want to go there. Branthwaite would be a big miss if he’s out.

Free Hit - Draft 1

This is from the Let’s Talk FPL channel and is pretty template - I would say the nailed on players are Salah, Eze, Gabriel, Saka and (probably) Solanke. Havertz has really crept up the FPL popularity stakes. Sa vs Pickford is a toss up.

Free Hit - Draft 2

Diaz, White and Mateta are the big differences in this draft from the FPL Focal Channel… but you can see the Liverpool/Arsenal/Palace core here, too.

How to soil a 6-0 win

I still can’t quite believe this happened, but here are some grown men fighting over who will take a penalty to go 5-0 up. I’m sure a few Chelsea fans would’ve liked to see this sort of determination during some of the billion pound boys’ less impressive outings. Quite something.

Please get in touch with any FPL dilemmas or general football internet gold. PS - I’m on Twitter here. Pics always link to the original source where possible. Please help me grow FPL Is Life by sharing… thanks! Typos entirely deliberate, but thanks for noticing.