Don't panic! Reacting to FPL disaster
Stay for a man doing something unspeakable with a hot dog
***GAMEWEEK 4 DEADLINE: SATURDAY - 11:00 GMT***
***GAMEWEEK 5 DEADLINE: TUESDAY - 18:00 GMT***
God bless Gameweek 3. It was absolutely brutal for many FPL managers, including yours truly (though to anyone who bought Gundogan, you’re welcome). Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea were all shocked in different ways. If you backed the big defenders that were the talk of pre-season, it was a disaster. Meanwhile, there’s a handful of players that are really delivering that weren’t in the “template” of highly owned players that dedicated FPL managers were going for. This is when we actually get to make some decisions and have some… fun? DON’T PANIC is this week’s theme.
This week, after Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea defensive issues, is going Big at the Back over? We’ll look at the players breaking the FPL template, the two good non-Big6 teams with the best fixtures, a good Wildcard draft and… something with a hot dog that will burn your eyes.
PS - there are TWO FPL DEADLINES before the next newsletter. It’s the first mid-week fixtures next week. DON’T FORGET!
Queries? Conundrums? Can’t sleep? Email me: fplislife@substack.com
A disastrous week for Big At The Back
So this happened… Cucurella also got 1 point, Dias 1 point. It was a comical week for expensive and popular defenders.
But it might not be the week to ditch them
Does this mean playing five at the back or going for premium defenders over? As FPL managers, we now have to decide whether anything has *actually changed* since we picked pricey defenders - be it 3, 4 or 5 of them - or whether Gameweek 3 was one of those freak weeks that happen every season.
Check out the below chart. To me, it suggests this may not be the week for rash decisions. Those big teams still have the best bookies’ odds for clean sheets this week. Liverpool play Bournemouth (home). Man City play Palace (home). Chelsea play Leicester (home). It may be worth waiting a week before you ditch a defender and restructure your team away from Big Defence.
Robertson owners do have a decision to make
With Man City and Chelsea, not a lot has changed that I can see. But things have changed at Liverpool - and that leaves Robertson owners with a decision. Liverpool are without Matip and Konate, their preferred centre-back partners alongside van Dijk - and it is clearly affecting the whole team. Added to that, Robertson has been subbed off early for Tsimikas in two games. Robbo is *26th* among defenders for expected goal involvement so far this season (excluding penalties).
As a Robertson owner, I probably won’t sell before they play Bournemouth this weekend, but he’s on notice. Selling Robbo would also free up a lot of cash with any of these great options:
Perisic (£5.5m) looking great and attacking at Spurs
Trippier (£5.1m) delivering at Newcastle
Dunk is a £4.5m option at Brighton
Saliba (£4.6m) looks solid at Arsenal (but takes up an Arsenal slot)
Template-busting players to emerge so far
Rodrigo at Leeds has been incredibly good so far and is the top points scorer in the game. But Toney is joint top for forwards, despite everything that has been said about Jesus. See below for more on Brentford. Perisic started for Spurs for the first time and looked great (but is a minutes risk). Zaha has looked sharp, BUT has Man City next.
A word also for Mitrovic - he looks the real deal for his price (£6.6m). Against Brentford, he had 8 shots, 7 inside the box, 4 big chances and an “expected goal” (xG) score of 2.03. He was unlucky to only score once.
Just hold me…
A keeper in Argentina who conceded in the last minute was consoled by a pitch-invading child. He’ll soon grow out of it.
Brighton & Brentford: good with great fixtures
The reason teams are so similar is that so many teams have 10 or even 11 players from the Big 5 (Arsenal, Liverpool, Spurs, Chelsea, Man City). But there are now two teams with amazing fixtures who are looking strong - Brighton and Brentford. The below is the Top5 sides for best fixtures in Gameweeks 4-8 (most managers will Wildcard by Gameweek 9).
I covered Brighton last week (Gross assisted again at the weekend, Sanchez looks the best £4.5m keeper). Top Brentford options: Toney, Jensen, Dasilva (to save cash).
A really good transfer cheat sheet
I liked this quick take. One extra thought though - I’d probably have a Brighton player (see last week) or Rodrigo at Leeds as a midfield option. I would LOVE to own Toney given his fixtures:
A worrying Pep quote on Haaland
We are soon (after Gameweek 5) entering Champions League season and that could mean more rotation for the big teams. There is a particular issue around Haaland, who wants his minutes managed. Now Pep has said the below. Haaland will be rested at some point, but a lot of that could be in domestic cups etc. With De Bruyne playing so well, switching to De Bruyne is what some serious managers are considering. Other players affected this way? I’d guess Perisic, given his age and the work Conte asks his wing-backs to do. Both Haaland and Perisic may be worth the rotation risk, but it’s something to bear in mind.
Still in despair? Here’s a Wildcard draft
It has everyone who’s banging right now. Key questions to ask: Will Rodrigo at Leeds keep it up? Is one Man City enough? Can you trust Kane? But as we’ve said before, an early Wildcard is very much an option this year due to the World Cup.
Just no…
I’m sorry because you cannot un-see this and it will haunt your dreams.
There’s a new FPL substack - Fantasy Gameweek. The two guys take lessons from markets nad investing and try to apply it to FPL. Check it out! (NB - I’m not connected to them in any way, or being paid to say this).
Please get in touch with any FPL dilemmas or general football internet gold. Remember the DEADLINES and see you next week! I’m on Twitter here. Please help me grow FPL Is Life by sharing… thanks!