Haaland's changing FPL - how to react
Stay for one of the best backflip goals you'll see this week
***GAMEWEEK 10 DEADLINE: SATURDAY - 13:30 GMT***
Remember when the game was boring because everyone captained Salah every week? Just nine Gameweeks into the new season, pretty much everyone is wondering if we should even own the Egyptian King. There’s a new perma-captain on the FPL throne. It’s still not clear which noun we should use for Haaland - machine, monster, freak, RoboBeast. Whatever you go for, his immense 23 points last week just confirms we can’t bet against him at the mo - and a lot of this week’s newsletter looks at what it means for FPL.
This week, Haaland stats, what it means for Salah and alternatives in midfield, the striker injury crisis, a look at the attack/defence league tables, a look at the Premium Defenders disaster - and a a backflip goal. Yes, a backflip goal. Btw - you can have an FPL lie-in - the deadline is at 1.30pm on Saturday.
Transfer dilemma? Career advice? Email me: fplislife@substack.com
Haaland stats - outlier or stone-cold killer?
Three hat-tricks from his last three home games. He’s got 170 goals at the age of 22 (Messi had 44, Ronaldo had 50). But there’s also an interesting underlying stat - Haaland has 14 goals this season from an “xG” of 7.4 - that’s to say, from the chances he has got, we’d expect him to score half the number of goals he has actually scored. So is he a scorer of low-percentage goals, or is this a freakish start that will revert to the mean? You decide! He’s smashing the game - the hapless Southampton up next.
Haaland’s biggest impact? We can take more risks
So how is Haaland changing FPL and what’s the best way to react? Well, everyone is captaining him. That means that even if a popular player you don’t have does well, you won’t be doubly punished - your rivals will most likely captain Haaland, too. The most obvious impact here is Salah - given his price and FPL returns, it was getting harder to justify his selection - but if he’s no longer a captain option, there’s less risk in taking that £12.8m and spreading it around. He’s a great player and can easily start returning big, but you won’t be punished in the same way as last season for going against him.
Salah looked better at the weekend vs Brighton. Here’s that game vs season average:
Mixing up the midfield:
If you’re ready to do something different to Salah, these lads could do a job. I’ve given each one a risk rating. PS - I’m not including KDB and Foden (great options) - because Man City have a Blank (no game) in a couple of Gameweeks.
Zaha: (Leeds, Leicester, Wolves, Everton Southampton): Nailed, attacking, looking great - and Palace have the best fixture run. Low Risk.
Diaz: (Arsenal, Man City, West Ham, Forest, Leeds): Missed some minutes, but often looks Liverpool’s best player. Low Risk.
Maddison: (Bournemouth, Palace, Leeds, Wolves, Man City): Now the Leicester talisman with a point to prove. Low Risk.
Son: (Brighton, Everton, Man Utd, Newcastle, Bournemouth): Got that hat-trick, but still not the Son of last season. At his price, he needs to fire. Medium Risk.
Bowen: (Fulham, Southampton, Liverpool, Bournemouth, Man Utd): Finally returned vs Wolves, but a poor season so far. Very low ownership. Medium Risk.
Sterling: (Wolves, Villa, Brentford, Man Utd, Brighton): Chelsea’s attack still looks dull, but no one owns the guy and he has a high points ceiling. High Risk.
Kane: No, not a midfielder, but you could go for a dirt cheap replacement for Salah and switch to Kane upfront. He’s reliable, but you may need a -4 points hit to get him. Medium Risk.
Think about a good captain for Gameweek 12
In a couple fo weeks, both Arsenal and Man City don’t have a game as their fixture has been postponed. So it’s the only week for a while we can go for someone other than Haaland. Have this in your mind in the next couple of weeks. Early options: Spurs play Man Utd (Kane, Son) that week, Fulham (Mitrovic) play Villa and Brighton (Trossard?) play Nottingham Forest.
Premium defenders - a disaster movie
Premium defenders have been bad - and again at the weekend. Cancelo is way down in terms of expected goal involvement (xGi). Trent is second for xGi among defenders, but keeps conceding.
Who to go for? Trippier and James are a bit cheaper and both are looking very good, though James has been unlucky in terms of return. He’s the top defender for xGi. It’s worth remembering both Cancelo and Trent are still cheap when compared to Midfielders. Palace and West Ham have good cheap options if you need one. Clean-sheet %s below for this week:
Mitrovic, Isak could be out - alternatives
Suddenly, strikers are dropping like flies. Mitrovic has some kind of knock - but we don’t have confirmation that he’s out injured yet. WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY for an update before removing him. Likewise with Isak. If they’re out, Salah owners could always switch to Kane (see above), but if you want something in a similar price range, some picks below. Martial is the outside shout - he’s back and looks pretty good for £6.9m. The graphic shows “expected points” this week from a computer model.
Best attacks/defences: two league tables
Here are two tables - Expected Goals (how many goals should a team have from the chances they created) and Expected Goals Against (how many should we have expected them to concede). Takeaways? Well, mainly that the Blank Gameweek for Many City and Arsenal in Gameweek 12 is a real pain, because otherwise we’d be loading up on them.
Newcastle attack looks interesting… Wilson/ASM worth the risk? Chelsea defence is good, despite the misfiring attack. We need to wait to see what Best XI Potter settles on. Also - Liverpool attack is still worth investing in if we can find the right player - prob Salah vs Diaz. The same with Spurs.
Just a totally normal backflip penalty
The best backflip penalty from the Russian third tier you’ll see this week. Kudos to Nefis Kazan’s Norik Avdalyan. Apparently it’s the second one he’s scored. Let’s be honest, you’d have questions to answer if you missed.
Please get in touch with any FPL dilemmas or general football internet gold. Remember the DEADLINES and see you next week! I’m on Twitter here. Please help me grow FPL Is Life by sharing… thanks!