5 lessons from the season... & 5 for next
Stay for a final goodbye from FPL Is Life
The captains have been picked, the transfers made - the swearing at Pep benching your new Man City player has subsided. Yes, another season of FPL is done, so here’s one last edition before FPL Is Life signs off. Btw, the answer on the final day was… Crystal Palace. They have been immense in the run in. Eze and Mateta scored big again. What happens to them over the summer will be a big deal (we’ll get into that).
For this LAST EVER post, I’ll go through five thoughts on this season, before having a go at five early thoughts ahead of next season. Thanks so much for the messages I received in the last week - it was great to hear that FPL Is Life has helped a few out there. Good luck, remember the deadlines and… enjoy the Euros!
The Free Hit was crucial this year
The chips are sometimes overrated, but this season there was one that seemed to make a huge difference. People who used their Free Hit in the Blank Gameweek 29 did very badly - those who waited to use it in Double Gameweek 34 probably enjoyed the best chip week in FPL history, as long as they went heavy on Palace. People were scoring double hundreds. It was crazy - and a huge 40/50 point swing in a lot of cases. This year’s overall FPL winner points to it here on the official FPL account. Congrats if you got the chip right this year:
Cole Palmer broke the game
I’m not sure FPL Towers can be blamed for this, but the top FPL points scorer in the whole game cost, at one point, £4.9m..! Cole Palmer’s emergence at Chelsea meant that there weren’t many compromises necessary to get most of the players we wanted this season. Palmer finished costing £6.3, still a good £3m less than he should be next year. He got 22 goals, 13 assists and 32 bonus points. He didn’t even start a game until Gameweek 7. He forms part of the 23/24 FPL Season Dream Team, compiled by the All About FPL account on X. Salah makes it 7 consecutive seasons with 200+ FPL points, yet he hasn’t felt essential this year.
Moving keepers was a disaster
This is probably a personal lesson, but keepers have been a nightmare this season. At the start of the season, many people went for Pickford, but got frustrated with his lack of cleansheets. Then Areola was popular, but again suddenly dipped. In the end, lots of people went to Raya, which was understandable. But if you look at the end of the season scores, there really isn’t much between them all. In fact, sticking with Pickford was the answer. The lesson? Pick a keeper that’s reasonably priced with decent enough data, and don’t waste transfers on them unless you get injuries.
Analytics is now having serious FPL results
Analytics - the data revolution in football - has been growing in FPL for some time now, but this season seems to have shown it’s an irresistible force. The overall winner is a self-declared Analytics FC member. What does it all mean? Well, basically it’s much more about understanding the player path choices over a period of gameweeks, and concentrating on a player’s “EV” (expected value), based on their historic data. There are all sorts of tools to help, most obviously FPL Review (check out the season review tool). The below shows average finishing rank in a selection of mini leagues. The force of analytics is strong…
My season was… ok
I finished 64k in the world (well, 64,055 to be exact). I’ve been having a proper go for four seasons now and that was my 2nd worst finish. The things that went wrong - not having Mbeumo early on, not using the Free Hit and getting Mateta in Gameweek 34, dodging Porro and then going for Ederson instead of Gvardiol for the run in. So pretty average, but I’ll go again next season. PS - for a great season review, go to the FPL Optimized site and look at your season highlights. Here are the players and weeks that hurt me most..!
Five early thoughts on next season…
We need new Premiums
It feels like we’re going through a transition in the Prem and FPL in terms of the marquee players. Salah still scored more than 200 points and KDB remained a tempter when he was fit, but it seems like some new Premium players emerged. Foden, Saka and Palmer were extremely reliable and they were all significantly under-priced by the end. To force us into some choices, they will need to be priced in the £9.5-£11.5 bracket. It would be a shame, and very boring, if we can afford all three along with Haaland. The below Tweeter really wants them to go high with the prices…
Haaland will continue to be a lock
Whatever the fixtures and whatever his price, it already feels nailed on that our teams will have the RoboBeast in our Gameweek 1 teams next season, all being well with his fitness. The data backs it up. It felt like he wasn’t as effective this year at times, but his underlying data was actually better this year (though basically the same). He was more accurate last year, but there’s nothing here to say you should avoid the best striker in the best team with the highest Expected Goal data.
Last season is the top line, this season bottom (stats are per 90mins). I believe he finished as the only player with an xG per 90 of more than 1 (1.03). Isak was next, on 0.81. (Categories: Expected Goals (xG), Expected Assists (xAG), Expected Goal involvement (xG+xAG), non-penalty Expected Goal (npxG), non-pen Expected Goal Involvement (npxG+xAG)):
Palace’s summer is important for FPL
They were awesome at the end, weren’t they? Anyone who brought them in for their Double Gameweek and then kept them have really cleaned up. The data is clear - 5th for goals scored, 8th for xG created since Oliver Glasner arrived and the Eze, Olise, Mateta triumvirate were fit. They have also been weirdly accurate in that time, though - the jargon here is their “xG Delta” (how many more goals have they scored than expected from the shots they’ve taken) is the highest in the league, so that is a point of caution (can that last?). If this team stays together over the summer and stays fit, they could well be massive for FPL next season. A big “if” though. Below is a league table since Glasner arrived (a week and a bit old, but you get the idea).
There will be fewer Double/Blank Gameweeks
The end of FA Cup replays will have a big impact, in that those big Blank and Double Gameweeks (Gameweek 29 and 37 this season) won’t happen. We’ll get the odd Blank and Double, for example caused by the Carabao Cup final, but they will be small and rare. This will hopefully mean the player pool for FPL is wider, as we don’t get funnelled towards the Double Gameweek players. It will also have a big impact on chip strategy, as it may become more viable to play Free Hits etc in normal Gameweeks. Some are also talking about using the Bench Boost in Gameweek 1, just to get it out of the way. I don’t like that because there is so much we don’t know at the start if the season, but I can see the point of it.
Champions League changes could be important
The expanded Champions League could also have an effect on the top sides. Under the new format, teams will play 10 times in a league and all the games will count in a way they don’t necessarily now (teams can rest players if they’ve already won their group under the current system). It will probably mean even more rotation from Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Aston Villa. Pep Roulette on steroids. Great! Below, FFJoe also makes a good point about big squad changes over the summer - Man Utd, Spurs in particular look like they’ll do a big refresh…
That’s it from FPL Is Life - have a great summer! PS - enjoy this final video. No idea what’s going on here, but not bad half time entertainment…
Mr Savage,
Thank you very much for sharing your great FPL thoughts with us. You've been entertaining and insightful. Wishing you all the best in the future.