Don't quit now - exploit the Double Gameweeks
Stay for bad pitches, "bundled in" goals and Clive Allen
***GAMEWEEK 34 DEADLINE: SATURDAY 11:00***
It’s a miracle! Bruno Fernandes rose from his sick bed, or at least his raised-foot-with-toast bed, to play in last night’s game against Spurs. That was despite the fact he was pictured by his girlfriend on Instagram with a leg brace and crutches next to him. FPL Twitter has been wondering if she’s an FPL manager trying to put rivals off the scent. It worked, with a lot selling him ahead of Man Utd’s Double Gameweek this week - a good job FPL Is Life readers were advised holding him was a decent move. Phew!
Big chances for some lat-season points this week with a Double Gameweek for good teams. Quite a lot of Man City talk this week. Let’s get to it.
Angry about selling Bruno? De Bruyne angst? Email me: fplislife@substack.com
There are still Big Points ahead…
Yes the title race is basically over, but this is not the time to lose interest in FPL. There are big points to get this week - there are also Double Gameweeks in Gameweeks 36 and 37 (Brighton have three Doubles left, so still worth a look if you don’t have three). This week, it’s all about getting in the big upside player you’re missing for the double. Salah, Rashford, Bruno, Trent… these lads are worth a hit in a Double Gameweek. The -4 points hits will be flying. We’ll have time to bring in Newcastle players after this week as they Double in Gameweek 36. This is sorted by best fixtures.
De Bruyne is suddenly being talked up again
No surprise given his stellar performance against Arsenal, underlying his status as one of the bets players to grace the Prem. He’s obv never been a bad player, but his benchings earlier on in the season and the decent points being scored by other Premiums - Haaland, Salah, Kane - meant he’s never been a big FPL feature.
Should that change? His underlying numbers are great (#1 for assists, #4 for goals +assists, #7 for expected goal involvement per90 mins) - but the issue is rotation and opportunity cost. De Bruyne must be a risk with the Champions League/FA Cup final in the mix. Meanwhile, you have the likes of Salah/Bruno etc who are more or less nailed to play. But if you’re chasing and want to punt on a differential, they don’t come better than King Kev.
A Wildcard draft looks great this week
Because the teams doubling this week are so good, the Gameweek 34 Wildcard looks amazing. So anyone who has had the patience to hold it this long should fill their boots. You need time for a Wildcard to do its thing, so leaving any longer doesn’t make much sense to me. There is, of course, the nightmare “third man City player” issue to deal with (more below).
Below is basically the template, though I’d go Bruno over KDB and (probably a Liverpool attacker over Robertson, who has a Tsimikas issue and Liverpool haven’t been keeping clean sheets). This draft is from this tweet.
Choosing three Man City players: still a nightmare
We’ve been dealing with this all season. Actually, we’ve been dealing with this ever since Pep arrived. How do we cash in on the best team in the land when Pep drops players seemingly in great form? We also have the rotation issue in serious play because of the Champions League. We all have Haaland -after that it gets hard.
The Man City defence seems so hard to call for me - I think it’s Stones if you must, though I prefer Ederson - despite the fact Man City always manage to concede. Grealish is the midfielder of choice for most. For this Double Gameweek, I think Mahrez must have a good chance of minutes, given he’s done well when he’s played and didn’t make the Arsenal game. Maybe a nice pick if you want to gamble. Then there’s another curveball option… a good thread here on City/Liverpool best three.
Alvarez - a good end of season punt?
So no one is saying that he’s going to play every minute of the remaining games - in fact, he’s pretty certain to miss some minutes and a game or two. But his quality is so high and the games are so congested that Alvarez is now being mentioned by some top managers as a guy to take a late-season gamble on if you need to make up ground. I don’t hate it.
Liverpool on the charge
Readers, you were warned. Because of their fixtures and underlying numbers (they were never that bad going forward), Liverpool are now a big thing again. They have players coming back, which is both good and bad for FPL - but Salah looks like the guy people will be bringing in for a hit this week. He’s great at Anfield and now has three home games. Alexander Arnold is the #2 pick. Beyond that, you’re probably looking at Gakpo, Jota and Robertson. Jota looks to have the higher upside - but you’ll have to take the benchings on the chin. He’s playing so well it may not matter.
The Top 10 for Expected Points this week
This chart, based on one of the big FPL models out there, is good confirmation of everything we’ve talked about so far. So good to know the robot overlords agree. But until they start an FPL substack, you’re stuck with this.
Poor old Clive Allen
Yes, Haaland’s miles ahead of the other great Prem strikers (see this graph). This week, he decided to do assists against Arsenal instead, for a laugh - but then scored anyway at the end. He has 49 goals this season now, equalling Clive Allen’s tally in 1986-87. The main difference is that poor old Clive won the square root of naff all that season. So let’s at least relive Clive’s best strikes. The pitches, and celebrations, have improved.
Please get in touch with any FPL dilemmas or general football internet gold. Remember the DEADLINES and see you next week! I’m on Twitter here. Please help me grow FPL Is Life by sharing… thanks!