FPL is back! Here's the early template
Stay for what will be the best miss of the season
***GAMEWEEK 1 DEADLINE: FRIDAY, 5 AUGUST - 18:30 GMT***
Hello again! Welcome to the new subscribers - and welcome back to seasoned “Lifers” (Yes, I’m calling FPL Is Life readers “lifers”, it’s a thing).
I had planned to release the first newsletter last week, but the day job got in the way. I’m actually excited by this season, not just because it’ll be the first full season for FPL Is Life. Hopefully there should be less covid disruption, which got a bit much last year. It should mean a simpler, more fun game. Some early thoughts below - just to get the FPL juices flowing… Thoughts/questions? Email me: fplislife@substack.com
The Big Six have good fixtures
If you’re new to FPL or are taking it more seriously for the first time, think about fixtures, fixtures, fixtures. They should play a big role in your transfers. This year, it’s pretty easy early on - the Big Six (or Big Five really - sorry Man Utd fans) all have a decent opening run. So focus on the best teams. This from the Let’s Talk FPL Youtube channel:
Attacking full-backs are great & still too cheap
Maybe THE story of last year were the amazing value of attacking defenders - which led to many managers going Big At The Back. These full-backs/wing-backs should’ve shot up in price this year. They have increased, but not enough to put us off - so 4-4-2 (or even five at the back if you’re feeling brave) may be the way to go on a formation… Alexander-Arnold, Robertson, Cancelo, James, Chilwell, Perisic all look great.
The “template” is already forming
There’s always a “template” of players that are popular in the game - and a strong template among those who spend a lot of time on the game. The key to doing well is knowing (or gambling) when to move to and away from this template. There are already players that look like a must. Luis Diaz looks great value at £8m, especially with Mane leaving Liverpool. Jesus (£8m) is popular since his move to Arsenal. Raya (£4.5m) looks to be the value keeper of choice.
This is pretty much the template draft in these early days…
Infinite free transfers during the World Cup mean you can consider an early Wildcard
It’s another odd season because we have the absurd Qatar World Cup this winter. The FPL Gods have decided you can make as many free transfers as you like during the tournament - so that’s effectively another Wildcard that you have to use during that period. It means an early Wildcard in the opening few weeks is a good idea, especially if it’s all going wrong already.
Picking your Premium players is a big decision
The graph below shows how the “premium” (expensive) players are worth the money, but you can only really have 2… or 3 at the most. So picking which ones is the big pre-season decision. Salah (£13m) and Haaland (£11.5m) are popular at the mo… but Spurs have a good first two games. Son could be underrated again, because £12m is a huge price… will anyone dare to go without Salah? Also, does Haaland’s arrival make De Bruyne (£12m) a reliable assist man again, like in the Aguero days?
Two easy “wait and see” teams
Do you have any idea how much impact Erik ten Hag’s pre-season at Man Utd will have? Do you know how much another wave of signings will improve Newcastle? Me neither. These two teams are easy ones to wait on for me - unless you want to go for the value that someone like Rashford offers at £6.5m (if he plays). And you do have that early Wildcard option…
Erling Haaland - the lowdown
In tragic news, pundits won’t be able to say Man City really need a recognised striker after every match in which they drop points. Haaland has landed, and is instantly the most owned player in the game so far - 65% ownership is crazy. Easy to see why - he will surely play *a lot* in the best team and has a great record. BUT there have been injury concerns and there is the Bundesliga tax to pay. That said, here’s his stats vs Kane, who’s the same price…
Some other interesting prices…
Goalkeepers: All keepers seem to have come down in price. Mendy is now just £5m, but even Ederson is £5.5m - could it be the season of the pricey keeper? In a team of rotation, Ederson plays every game.
Cheap defenders: there are some steals at £4.5m - eg Dunk, Lamptey at Brighton…
Mid-priced midfielders: some great options around £8m - Saka, Coutinho, Diaz, Mount… looks a good price point.
We won’t beat this miss all season
I mean, is it even a miss? It’s a clearance - and a decent one. Blame Canada.
Please get in touch with any FPL dilemmas or general football internet gold. Remember the DEADLINES and see you next week! I’m on Twitter here. Please help me grow FPL Is Life by sharing… thanks!