***GAMEWEEK 29 DEADLINE: SATURDAY - 13:30 GMT***
It’s here! A seriously bad Gameweek. Only four games with some of the poorer teams, so a lot of people will be using the Free Hit chip. Some people will have built a side over several weeks to get them through this Gameweek - for them, a Wildcard next week, to get rid of the dross, seems the way to go. Others used the Wildcard recently with this week in mind. That’s all a long-winded way of saying this is a week that we go our separate ways on strategy. But don’t stress - there is no wrong answer this season… despite what the planners say!
Got a transfer dilemma? Have Free Hit envy? Email me: fplislife@substack.com
How to decide whether to Free Hit this week
As you’ll all know by now, or if it’s taken you by surprise when you logged into the FPL site, there are only four fixtures this Gameweek - It’s a big Blank Gameweek. Those games:
When is it worth playing the Free Hit? Well, a lot of the value of playing it has been in the planning - those wanting to get through it with Free Transfers will have had to be doing that, possibly with hits, for two or three weeks to get enough players. Many more will take a -4 or a -8 this week to get the main threats this week. I think not to play it you probably need c.8 players including the biggies - Son, Watkins, Bowen, Toney…
Another way of looking at it is to apply a value to the chip. Do you want at least 18 points from it? If you spare yourself taking a couple of -4 points hits and think there’s a further 10 points upside from you Free Hit team, that’s a good way of looking at it. The other big chance to play it is Double Gameweek 34 - Palace, Bournemouth, Sheffield United, maybe Newcastle, Man Utd could have two games. We don’t know yet.
A Free Hit shortlist
This is a good place to start when putting together a Free Hit team. You could also chuck Johnson in the from Spurs if you want to role the dice. There are certain players that look essential: Son, Maddison, Toney, Watkins, Bowen, probably Flekken playing the awful Burnley. So you’re probably then playing with five or so slots. Either 3-4-3 or 3-5-2 are viable - Morris is probably the obvious third striker if you go that way - he’s improved a lot in recent weeks.
This is basically the Free Hit team
There will be many, many similar teams because - as I say - there are about six or seven obvious players. The draft below is quite close to the most obvious. Burnley is the worst attack on display - so Brentford defenders feels right. Reguilon will probably be the most popular Brentford defender (if he’s declared fit). Porro and Doughty are just the most attacking defenders here. Villa, Spurs and Brentford (in that order) are the best Expected Goal creators. I suspect Bailey or Douglas Luiz will be more popular than Paqueta.
A Draft with Triple Spurs Attack
The biggest way to twist, I’d say, is to go Triple Spurs attack. I think Porro is such a good pick that I’m not sure the upside is there, but here’s would that tactic might look like - with Johnson added. He is a minutes risk, though - but he played 87 minutes in the last game and is getting good reviews from Spurs fans. This draft also goes 3-5-2, dropping Morris (who becomes a risk if Adebayo returns, which doesn’t look likely).
We have a title race
Here’s an excellent table from the equally excellent
, which uses his “team strength” model to project the end of season table. It’s official - we have a title race! This great development does have FPL implications. If three teams are still vying for the title late on, the usual rest and rotation we see when things are decided in the final few weeks could be massively reduced - that big Double Gameweek 37 could see some massive scores..!Apologies to Ben White
Back at the start of the season, one player all FPL experts definitely didn’t want in their teams was Arsenal’s Ben White. In an Arsenal defence with great cheaper options, he looked mispriced at £5.5m and we all discounted him. Well, after a great run, he’s now the top points scoring defender… sorry Ben.
xGi data dump on Free Hit players
Need even more data? Well, here’s a table of recent Expected Goal Involvement (xGi) data of the main options. I was surprised to see Elanga’s data looks better than Gibbs-White - worth noting if you’re going for a Forest attacker.
Free Transfer targets this week
If you’re making one Free transfer this week and NOT Wildcarding next week, then it’s all about trying to cover one of the big players. Son will be the big captain option, but crucially he’s a great player full stop that you can continue with if need be. It’s Luton next Gameweek.
Mad things keep happening in Brazilian football
We had the push me pull you player game last week. Now Brazilian football has delivered this upgrade - riding an opposing player like a horse. They just keep innovating over there.
NO NEWSLETTER NEXT WEEK as it’s an international break. Please get in touch with any FPL dilemmas or general football internet gold. PS - I’m on Twitter here. Please help me grow FPL Is Life by sharing… thanks! Typos entirely deliberate, but thanks for noticing.