Getting ready for a big fixture swing week
Stay for a ref literally handing out the cards
***GAMEWEEK 10 DEADLINE: FRIDAY - 18:30 GMT***
No Mo? Fomo. A lot of people were torn over whether to use their Wildcard back in Gameweek 8, before the international break, or after - this week in gameweek 10, when there is a big fixture swing. Those who went for the earlier slot have had huge returns, largely because of one man - Salah, aka the GOAT of FPL, has racked up 31 points in two Gameweeks. Punishing for those without him and he is now an essential pick, in as much as any player ever is. End the fear of missing out. He has Forest next.
This is a bit of a Wildcard special as there are new teams to hop on and lots of people will hit the Big Chip this week, but there’s lots in here for the weekly transfer, too. Please share and subscribe to help me justify the time this free newsletter takes (‘m writing this from a Center Parcs in Belgium (really)!
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The big fixture swing
We covered this, pretty much, last week - but it’s now time to go for Liverpool (Salah). Villa have three great games next, and West Ham have a good run over a longer period (see below), so there’s a lot of Bowen talk. Arsenal players can come back in - but best of all, we can dump Man Utd players without a second thought.
Anyone who Wildcarded in Gameweek 8 did well
You probably brought in Salah early and got rid of the misfiring Man Utd and Chelsea players. You did well. Congrats. Salah got 15 points vs Brighton and 16 vs Everton, including a killer of a 97th minute goal for non-owners. It’s looking like the right call - but a huge number of people will Wildcard this week, so we’ll know more in a few weeks’ time. PS: Salah now tops the Expected Goals chart for the season.
Mid-priced Midfielders - a tough choice
Salah, Saka and Son are the stand out performers in midfield, but the mid-priced players are causing some debate. If you’re looking for one, Bowen and Mitoma seem to lead in the popularity stakes. Diaby has three great games ahead (Luton, Forest, Fulham) but of the fancied mid-priced players, his data isn’t great. As you can see, Mbeumo, as the best Expected Goal involvement data, but he is coming off a good fixture run early in the season. Diaz is a great option if he plays, but is competing with good attackers now.
Brighton - should we bring them back in?
Their tough run is now over and they have a great run of games (Fulham, Everton, Sheffield, and Forest). now all you have to work out is how highly you rate Brighton. Remember they play in Europe now and they have been hit by injuries. Here are the raw stats. They’re 2nd for Big Chances Created (behind Newcastle - Man City are down in 10th), 3rd for Expected Assists, and 4th for Expected Goals. They’re only 12th for Expected Goals Conceded, so the defence isn’t great.
Mitoma’s minutes are good - he’s played 90mins in all but two games - and he remains the obvious Brighton pick. Some are now looking at Adingra for just £5.0m, as March is out for some time. It’s very interesting one. personally, I want to wait for more info on him. Elsewhere, we’re awaiting Estupiñan’s return - he is the great attacking defender pick when he re-emerges.
Cheap midfielders - a few to choose from
As we said last week, Palmer is now an option. He took and scored another penalty (despite Sterling trying to take the ball). he’s also playing false nine every now and again. But remember, Chelsea games are now terrible. Gordon is still a good option with Barnes out injured (loves a yellow card, tho) - while Soucek is also being mentioned but FPL Twitter. I’m not sure his minutes are guaranteed, though. Here’s some stats for the three:
Palmer (£5.0m). xGi: 3.23. Big Chances Created: 3. Shots in Box: 6
Gordon (£5.6m). xGi: 3.70. Big Chances Created: 5. Shots in Box: 10
Soucek (£5.0m). xGi: 3.00. Big Chances Created: 2. Shots in Box: 13
Neto (£5.8m). xGi: 4.79. Big Chances Created: 5. Shots in Box: 13
It’s a big Wildcard week - a shortlist
So any Wildcard this week is built around Salah, given his games and the form he’s been in. Then once you put in Haaland, you’re going to then have to decide getting two out of three other great picks - Saka, Son and Trippier. There is pain in dropping any, but sacrifices have to be made. Any Wildcard is built around Salah, Haaland, Villa (hard to look past Watkins), West Ham, Arsenal and arguably Brighton. Here’s a great shortlist:
Wildcard Draft 1: No Trippier
This tweet shows the basic draft that a lot of people are building around. Trippier is the big miss here, but other teams have better short-term fixture runs and you can’t have them all. The Mitoma slot feels below 80% certainty for me - Bowen must be right up there as the West Ham main man. PS - if you want to go 3-4-3, get Alvarez instead of a mid-priced midfielder.
Wildcard Draft 2: Trippier+
This is a draft with Trippier, who has been the best defender for a while. Team value will affect you here - when players go up, you keep half of their increased value. However, you lose every £0.1m they lose in value. I’ve seen some big variations in team value this season. This draft is from FPL Focal. A weak bench.
Ref handing out the cards like it’s Christmas
Let’s be honest, as football memorabilia goes, this isn’t really up there with getting Messi’s shirt. But hey, it’s nice to see refs are getting some decent crowd support in the Brazilian second division.
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Why is it that nobody still mentioned Ansu Fati? Not once.🤔