Going Big At The Back (again)
Stay for the real Ted Lasso (it's not Jesse Marsch)
GAMEWEEK 29 DEADLINE: SATURDAY, 11:00 GMT
The bad news first - apart from our Harry, all the FPL strikers are still crap. But there is now good news - there are suddenly a load of very expensive defenders to spend all that spare cash on. It’s not for the first time - the first part of the season was the story of Big At The Back - full-backs running the show. As a result of fixtures and returns from injury, we could be heading back there. Trent Alexander Arnold, Robertson, James, Rudiger, Cancelo. All great.
Mea cupla corner - I was too cautious in last week’s email on Reece James, who got a massive score and looks awesome. Things changed after the email (honest), when Thomas Tuchel said James had trained and Azpilicueta hadn’t (pretty much guaranteeing at least one full game for James in a Double Gameweek). Magnus Carlsen was among those to captain James and smash it.
***UPDATE: On Wednesday afternoon, it emerged James has picked up a knock and is out for 3-4 games, though it’s unclear if this refers to league games.***
This week: The Spurs enigma, the best third Liverpool player, a great chart on expected goal involvement, the best remaining Triple Captain chances, and the real Ted Lasso story (except it’s not heartwarming - just mad).
A good Venn diagram
A week late, yes, but it helps clarify which teams play twice this week and still have a fixture next week (Gameweek 30), when only four matches are happening. Teams with a Double Gameweek this week and a fixture next week are… Spurs and Arsenal.
Are Spurs good or bad?
This is the FPL question of the week and how you answer will dictate your strategy over the next two weeks or so. If you think they’re good - well, you’re probably using a transfer to prioritise more of them. The problem is, it’s not an easy question to answer. Lose to Wolves, beat Man City. Lose to Burnley, thrash Leeds. Lose to Middlesbrough(!), demolish (a truly terrible) Everton. I thought this chart was interesting - it looks at average expected goals (xG) each month, on a rolling basis (not including penalties). There is some strong Spurs data there. They’re at the top and seem to be improving.
Spurs options
Defence: It’s quite kneejerky, but Doherty (4.7m) - cheap and a points machine *as long as he plays*. He’s played so well it seems unlikely he’ll be dropped, but who knows. Dier and Romero are the starting centre backs, but remember in all this - it was only Everton.
Mids: Son (obv), but Kulusevski looks terrific and mis-priced at 6.1m.
Forwards: Come now.
The best Double Gameweek options
People are understandably targeting Spurs and Arsenal because of the above. The other side is Liverpool, because they’re Liverpool. Everyone has Salah and TAA, so it’s a choice between Robertson and a midfielder. Both have rotation risks this week, but the three people are choosing from are Jota, Luis Diaz and Robertson. Robertson’s points in his last 6 starts: 12, 11, 6, 7, 13, 6.
From Arsenal, Saka is the main FPL man. He has more points than all the Man City mids, apart from Bernardo Silva. No one owns Martinelli - I don’t know why. He’s in this good list of Liverpool/Spurs/Arsenal players:
This guy has created a way to allow your FPL Team to have away kits
You don’t just get expected points models if you mix computers and FPL - you also get stuff like this. It’s… quite fun?!
Is it possible to get Son and Kane, and Salah?
Everyone will be asking this in a week or so. With so many cheap players around and no good strikers, it is *possible* to do - I imagine a lot of people Wildcarding from Gameweek 30 onwards will have both. The problem is if a clear Man City option emerges, as money will be tight. Here are some team examples from Twitter:
The best chances left to play the Triple Captain
Salah’s double this week has to be a good option, though given fixture congestion is always a risk. Here’s a great Tweet on the other remaining likely chances:
Newcastle have been flying since January
Apparently if you get a better manager and then replace some of the players with better players, you’re better at football and get more points. This is the lesson of Newcastle since the transfer window. Not obvious where to go in terms of FPL - there’s probably better options for now. But some have gone for Ryan Fraser at just 5.3m, and done really well (injury rumours though - CHECK BEFORE BUYING). Willock is the other cheap player at 5.8m. The problem is they’re often creating chances for Chris Wood and Joelinton.
Cancelo, Bowen, Fraser all a concern - UPDATE: James OUT
All have potential injury/illness issues this weekend, so check before doing transfers. Use this site. Reports suggest James will miss at least the Newcastle game.
Flashback to Chester City’s Ted Lasso moment
Some slightly unfair Ted Lasso references to poor old Jesse Marsch this week, which he addressed in an annoyingly self aware fashion. The much better comparison is Terry Smith, a former American Football player who bought Chester City in 1999, eventually appointing himself manager despite zero experience in… soccer. Lasso certainly draws on the rich material provided by Smith, who appointed a forward, midfield and defensive captain (in the team) and said things like: “We need three scores in the first half!” … “That’s the most pitiful effort I ever dang seen!”
If you have a free 50 minutes and enjoy bad recordings of obscure football stories, there’s a fly-on-the-wall doc of the whole thing, on YouTube. Worth your time.
Please get in touch with any FPL dilemmas or general football internet gold. If you find this remotely enjoyable, please help me spread the word. Remember the DEADLINES and see you next week! I’m on Twitter here. Please help me grow FPL Is Life by sharing… thanks!