Happy New Year! Here's a chance for big points
Stay for the TV show that says the next Messi is... Christian Pulisic
WARNING: TWO WEIRD DEADLINES THIS WEEK
GAMEWEEK 19: BOXING DAY, 11:00 GMT
GAMEWEEK 20: TUESDAY, 11:00 GMT
There’s two ways of looking at the current covid chaos - one is that it’s massively depressing, slightly scary and leading to another crap Christmas. Sure that’s all true, but have you considered that it’s produced a huge opportunity for big FPL points next month? It seems we’ll get at least one Double Gameweek with some good teams having two games. Happy New Year, I guess? All the postponements underline the following - make transfers late, probably strengthen the bench, and if you can, save a transfer so you have TWO free transfers in future.
THIS WEEK: details of that potential Double Gameweek, the most over and underperforming goal scorers, and a weird Pulisic thing on US daytime TV.
A clever person on Twitter says there’ll be a Double Gameweek(s) in January
Some good news! All the disruption means it looks like we’ll get some teams with two games in Gameweek 21 (possible) and 22 (very likely). Gameweek 21 is New Year’s Day. Gameweek 22 is January 14.
Don’t stress about what it all means. This is where FPL legend Ben Crellin comes in - he has a rather beautiful spreadsheet that allows him to predict when games will be played and when Double Gameweeks* and Blank Gameweeks* will take place. Here’s an early draft, with lots of uncertainty. Don’t worry - I’ll break things down next week.
Son is the early stand out for those rearranged games…
SPURS (Kane, Son, Dele?) and MAN UTD (Dalot, Ronaldo, De Gea?) look good to target in these big weeks. It’s all theoretical at the mo, but BE PREPARED with Free Hit and Wildcard chips. Big FPL YouTuber Andy points out Son is the obvious stand out… (xG = expected goals, xA = expected assists):
Despite all the disruption, top managers didn’t use the Free Hit chip at the weekend
It was a mad weekend with postponements, but top managers didn’t use their Free Hit chip**. Only 2.12% of the Top 10k managers activated their Free Hit, scoring an average of 68.77 compared to 57.1 for teams that didn’t use it.
But there’s always one who uses the Free Hit and smashes it - this time, it was this guy. Congrats @MattyhFPL:
The chances of each of Boxing Day’s games going ahead…
I get it, it’s not science - and I have no idea what FPL Twitter based these on. But there was a Twitter poll and FPL Twitter came up with the below. It could help us plan. Presented with the disclaimer that no one has any idea.
Diversify if you can, but it’s a lottery. Don’t stress if it goes wrong:
Foden and Grealish have been naughty boys
Man City gave Leeds a good hiding recently, but both were two notable absences from the starting XI against Newcastle at the weekend. It turns out both were being punished by Pep for off the field behaviour issues - coming into training in the wrong condition - so felt they needed some punishment. In unrelated news, a dominatrix claimed she had a visit from a Man City player after the Leeds game.
What does it mean for FPL? With rotation already an issue, the consensus seems to be, hold off buying either. If you own either, it’s worth seeing if they re-emerge swiftly - it may be worth considering a player who is guaranteed minutes over Christmas/NY (Raphinha, Mason Mount, Conor Gallagher, Jarrod Bowen, Bakayo Saka). PS - Martinelli (ARS) looks very good and very cheap.
Here’s the most overperforming and underperforming goal scorers…
Last week I mentioned the “Team Stats” vs “Team On Grass” pointless Twitter beef. These two tweets are good to think about. They show players in relation to their “expected goals” (xG) - in other words, the amount of goals one would expect them to get based on the historical average of the types of chances they have had.
The key FPL question is this: for the overperformers, are they just lucky (therefore, don’t buy them), or clinical finishers who can keep it up (buy them)? For the underperformers, have they been getting in good positions but been unlucky (so consider buying them), or is it just that they can’t hit a barn door with a banjo (Adama Traore, I’m looking at you…). You decide..! It got me thinking about Kane (again).
OVERPERFORMING:
UNDERPERFORMING:
It’s boring, but Man City defence is INSANE
They are so far out ahead it’s madness. With Chelsea conceding a lot lately and many people having 2 or 3 Chelsea defenders, a switch to Ruben Dias is proving popular. BUT Kante and Kovacic are back for Chelsea, so they may improve.
Pulisic under the hammer…
US TV seems as entertainingly daft as the UK equivalent. Don’t get me wrong - Pulisic has shown great flashes and had injury problems, but… this assessment may be a bit out of whack. Next week - Bargain Hunt assesses Tom Brady’s place in NFL history.
Notes:
*Double Gameweek = two games for a team in the same set of FPL games. Blank Gameweek = some teams have no games. A good FPL glossary here.
**Free Hit chip allows you unlimited subs for One Week Only, before reverting to the team you had before using the chip.
Please get in touch with any FPL dilemmas or general football internet gold. If you find this remotely enjoyable, PLEASE HELP me spread the word. Remember the DEADLINES and see you next week!