Here's why people are selling Haaland
Stay for how the Premier League will end this season
***GAMEWEEK 28 DEADLINE: FRIDAY - 18:30 GMT***
You can’t say we didn’t warn you. Last week, FPL Is Life predicted more FPL pain, as a lot of people were leaving Arsenal players on the bench, in favour of Brighton and Brentford players with two games. Sure enough, Arsenal went big. The was a *lot* of bench pain last week. And this week, a load of people are planning to sell Erling Haaland. What could possibly go wrong? He only scored five last night.
This week: the Blank teams, a Free Hit draft, Chilwell is a thing, why March owners are cross, why Haaland is getting sold a lot, teams to target, a Wildcard Draft, goalscoring odds… and how the Premier League will finish.
Got a question for the email? Struggling to cope with an international break? Email me: fplislife@substack.com
Some teams have no game this week
It’s a Blank Gameweek. No game for Brighton, Fulham, Liverpool, Man Utd, Man City & West Ham. Fixtures below. The first thing to say is don’t stress about having a full XI. Most won’t - and the best teams aren’t playing, apart from Arsenal. As long as you have 9 or 10 good options, you should be ok. Even with 8, if you have the main players covered (three Arsenal, Kane, Trippier), it may not be a disaster. If you have seven or fewer, you’re probably in Free Hit territory. You could also use your Wildcard - and set yourself up for this week and a Bench Boost in next week’s big Double Gameweek.
A Free Hit for this week
A Free Hit here, which goes for the triple Chelsea defence vs Everton. James is a risk, as ever. Son is an interesting punt here - there’s no real form or data to back it up, but they do play Southampton. It’s also hard to leave Trippier on the bench.
Chilwell is already a thing
As we said last week, Chilwell would be a thing now he is back - and he is a thing. He scored at the weekend and Chelsea are generally showing signs of improvement, with the fullbacks again key to that. He’s a good option this week as he has a game vs Everton and then a Double next week (Villa and Liverpool at home).
Solly March has been awarded a goal - but it doesn’t help FPL managers
It was awarded as an own goal for Jack Harrison on Saturday vs Leeds, but Brighton’s heavily owned midfielder Solly March has since been awarded the goal. The FPL points don’t look like following, though. It’s been a tough couple of weeks for anyone who used their Wildcard in Gameweek 26. Most took out Liverpool players before their 7-0 vs Utd, then they benched Arsenal players last week in a 3-0 win - and now this. bUt WE reAlLy LovE tHIs gAme.
People are selling Haaland
Yes, it’s really happening - although after scoring five last night, some may be changing their minds. The logic for selling is simple - he only plays once over two weeks, and that’s against Liverpool next week. Other forwards play three times. If you think the likes of Watkins, Toney, Havertz or Isak can outscore him over that time, the sale makes sense. Will Haaland outscore them in a single game? We know he’s capable of that, but that is the calculation you have to weigh up. Watkins is the FPL Twitter favourite replacement. Havertz and Isak are the other two I’d consider.
BEWARE: If you’re selling Halaand, you’ll probably have to buy him back at a higher price. He cost £11.5m at the start of the season. He now costs £12.2m. Use a planner like FPL.team to check you can afford to buy him back in Gameweek 30.
Teams with 3 games in 2 weeks
A useful little tweet here, showing the teams who have a game this week and two next - and their main FPL options. Maddison is unlucky not to have more points, but seems to constantly have injury issues.
A Wildcard draft
This is from FPL Focal. As I said earlier, the idea here is to set yourself up for this week and the huge Double Gameweek next time out, after the international break. Most people struggling for players this week will use the Free Hit, though. The Utd players and a Brighton mid are on the bench, ready for a Gameweek 29 Bench Boost.
Goalscoring odds for this week
No surprises here - Kane top, Toney second (he’s upset a lot of people so far who brought him in for last week’s Double Gameweek, but has his second game tonight). Watkins appears above Havertz. These are taken from betting odds.
This is what will happen this season
Well, no, it’s actually some modelling wizardry from polling/data guru Nate Silver. The way it works is explained here, but it suggests we’re in for a decent end of the season… see you on the other end of the international break for a MASSIVE Double next time.
It’s an international break next week, so no FPL Is Life. Sorry! Please get in touch with any FPL dilemmas or general football internet gold. Remember the DEADLINES and see you next week! I’m on Twitter here. Please help me grow FPL Is Life by sharing… thanks!