It's time to roll the dice & pick your FPL punt
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***GAMEWEEK 16 DEADLINE: SATURDAY - 11:00 GMT***
Well, that was one of the most eventful FPL weeks ever. Nothing to do with the football, obviously. First, word spread that a Man City team line up leak was on the way. The good news - the leak arrived, and it was right. The bad news - the FPL website crashed for 30 minutes before the deadline. Cue panic, despair and fury from FPL diehards. Yes, even yours truly was caught up, locked out of the site and missing out on those Salah captain points. I mean, the Premier League only turns over £5bn odd a year, so no wonder someone forgot to put 50p in the FPL servers. I won’t be leaving it late for transfers this week, although Man City is the early game again… someone warn Andy Murray:
This is a fun week. It is the week of the ONE WEEK PUNT before the World Cup, so this is something of a special edition. We’ll have news on how the World Cup affects FPL, a look at the best fixtures to punt on, Liverpool players, Man Utd, a look at defences this week… and the best goalkeeper goal you’ll see for a while. If this newsletter is in any way helping, please help me share it - go on, please:
Transfer dilemma? Gentle FPL goading? Email me: fplislife@substack.com
The World Cup & FPL - chill & watch the football
After this Gameweek, we get the World Cup break until the day after Christmas. There’s a few questions about what happens with the game during that time. Basically, you get UNLIMITED transfers and player prices will NOT go up and down after Saturday night - so you don’t need to think about FPL at all (until the next FPL Is Life arrives). The World Cup impact is summed up below.
One minor thing to add - in the event of a tie break in your mini league, the winner is the player who made fewer transfers. So although transfers are free over the World Cup, use a free transfer planner, rather than chopping and changing on the official FPL site.
Everyone gets to gamble this week!
After the mess of last week, this week should at least be a chance to have some fun. We all get to reset our teams, so take a punt. Fixtures below - to me, the best games to attack are 1. Liverpool vs Southampton, 2. Fulham vs Man Utd and 3. Man City vs Brentford… with an honourable mention for Spurs vs Leeds. Unless you’re bringing in Salah or Haaland, I’d be reluctant to take a -4 hit this week, because it’s statistically hard to regain that -4 points in a single week.
I’m not including Salah, Haaland, KDB and Kane in ANY of the punts below. They’re great and obvious picks. If you can get any for free, get them.
Punts from Liverpool
So Ralph Hasenhüttl has been fired, which injects an unpredictability into this game, but for me, it’s the best to punt on - Liverpool players have a decent upside, despite recent form. For one match only (excluding Salah), my top three Liverpool punts are below, with some stats - expected goals per 90 minutes and excluding penalties (xG), and expected assists per 90 minutes (xA). If you can’t afford Nunez, Firmino is also worth thinking about and is never really discussed:
Nuñez (£8.9m): xG: 0.69, xA: 0.30
Trent (£7.2m): xG: 0.10, xA: 0.20
Robertson (£6.7m): xG: 0.04, xA: 0.22
Punts from Man Utd
Fulham at home may well attack, and that could open things up for an improving Man Utd side. Martial could be back, but CHECK FOR NEWS on Friday. That said, these are my top three Utd options (NOTE: Dalot is suspended after getting a yellow card last week, Antony is a doubt):
Rashford (£6.7m): xG: 0.33, xA: 0.17
Martial *if fit* (£8.9m): xG: 0.33, xA: 0.50
Fernandes (£9.8m): xG: 0.16, xA: 0.20
A Man City defender is a decent move
Man City have the best clean sheet odds this week, so it could be that the boring option is the right one. The problem is that, even with the Man City defence this season, it’s hard to predict the line-up. The good news is Cancelo will probably play - he got a red card at the weekend, but his suspension will be served in the Carabao Cup. So maybe a one-week punt on… Ederson?
That’s a keeper
Decent effort this. Goalkeeper goals from distance are usually a freak bounce of the ball. This one is full banger.
Some one-week punts from a top manager
Here are the one-week punts mentioned by @FPLGeneral, who runs The Athletic’s FPL podcast. Similar to above, but mentions Mitoma (Brighton) as a cheap option. Also, it’s worth noting Perisic was playing as a forward vs Liverpool. To this list, I would add Solanke (don’t laugh), and Wilson - even though he plays Chelsea. Also, Saka if you don’t have him.
Newcastle are the real deal
One of the takeaways from this first stint of games is that Newcastle have emerged as a top team much faster than we might’ve thought - Champions League next season isn’t fanciful. One of my mistakes so far has been a failure to get in an attacker at any point - the data has been good all along. They are 3rd for Expected Goals and 4th best for Expected Goals Allowed. If you’re anything like me, we need to shift our mindset on Newcastle, but one word of warning - Isak’s return, as well as additions in January, could disrupt their FPL stars - most obviously Almiron and Wilson. We’ll need to watch them carefully.
The best Premier League eye roll in the business
Never say Premier League footballers don’t have feelings. Check out Youri Tielemans when he’s told James Maddison was by far Leicester’s best player. The best teammate-on-teammate eye roll you’ll see this month.
Please get in touch with any FPL dilemmas or general football internet gold. Remember the DEADLINES. I’m on Twitter here. Please help me grow FPL Is Life by sharing it… ENJOY THE WORLD CUP and see you in December!
You might be interested in the fantasy league I described on my substack
https://open.substack.com/pub/saturdays/p/the-best-fantasy-league-for-deep?r=b8n22&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post