Liverpool favourites for FPL... & the title?
Stay for a serious bit of bad luck on the pitch
***GAMEWEEK 31 DEADLINE: TODAY - 18:00 GMT***
The biggest game of the season so far was also one of the worst - double Arsenal defence owners will take the points and run from that Man City game (those centre backs were immense). Anyone who was in two minds about whether or not we need Salah… just watch the highlights from the last game. Non-owners were insanely lucky that he only came away with 7 points. A Salah haul vs Sheffield Utd next feels as inevitable as Man Utd being crap and still getting points. How they drew with Brentford, I’ll never know…
It’s such a short turn around that this is a really quick run through of the priorities and team news for this week. THE DEADLINE IS TONIGHT! Please share to help the newsletter grow. Thanks all!
Got a transfer dilemma? Desperate for the FPL end? Email me: fplislife@substack.com
Get on Liverpool
For most people, this week will be pretty simple - get on some Liverpool players. They have the best expected goal and second best clean sheet odds against a Sheffield Utd side that had the stuffing knocked out of it at the weekend - and of course, we need to be setting up for that Liverpool double Gameweek in Gameweek 34. Salah will be the huge captaincy pick. Darwin and Diaz are both decent picks - Van Dijk is probably the best long-term defensive pick, as Bradley may only have three more games by the sounds of it. Allison is still not back, so Kelleher owners should be ok again for this game. One to monitor.
Laschelles out for the season (sorry)
Really bad luck for any Wildcarders last week who went for Laschelles. At £3.9m, I said last week that it was a good option given the Newcastle run in. But he’s done his knee and is now out for the season. Gusto at Chelsea seemed the next obvious cheap option, even though Chelsea have a Blank Gameweek 34 - but he also limped off. He’s now a watch and wait. Branthwaite at £4.2m looks the best of the cheap bunch at the mo - or Van Hecke (£4.1m) at Brighton.
Get Liverpool/Arsenal picks sorted
Below are the remaining fixtures ranked by difficulty by the excellent Fantasy Football Scout. Liverpool top, Arsenal third. So ahead of this run, if you think you have the wrong Arsenal three, it’s really now or never if you want to change up. It’s Saka, Gabriel + one other for most. Saliba, Raya are up there given their amazing defensive stats - but the gamblers may be interested in a Martinelli now he’s back. A decent differential there. The longer the league is undecided, the more minutes the top guys will get. PS - more Double Gameweeks will be added, including Double Gameweek 37.
Watkins injury - replacements
One of the heroes of the season also limped off in the last game. The info isn’t clear, but given how bad the Villa run is, most people will be thinking about trading him in. That makes a move to the chaos bringer himself, Darwin Nuñez, feel a little easier. Jota will be back in the mix very soon, but given Liverpool’s attacking numbers, it feels like we need options there. As for other options, I think I’d go: 1. Darwin 2. Solanke 3. Toney 4. Isak.
Top graphic here. GI = Goal Involvement, xGI = Expected Goal Involvement
The players ripping it up recently
I generally prefer to look at season-long data, unless something has obviously changed with a player or team - but every now and again it’s good to check out who is on a hot run. Below are the Top 15 players in terms of Expected Goal Involvement over the last six Gameweeks. Takeaways - the Haaland “drop off” isn’t really borne out by the data. Muñiz showing up is interesting - he is the cheap enabler guy if you need one. Toney is really showing up since his return. But Diaz being right up there is quite something - he’s not really been bigged up at all this season, but he’s really helped Liverpool keep up and now lead the league, despite injuries.
For many people, getting Salah will come at the expense of Son or Foden. Tough call, though most people will need the Son cash. Given the choice, I’d personally keep Son if I could find a reasonable way. I’m not sure I can for my team.
Wildcard Draft 1 - no Free Hit left
It’s another popular Wildcard week. The below was made by the great All About FPL site, and is based on someone who has no Free Hit left (Gameweek 34 is the obvious one to use it now). It’s also assumed that this manager would use the Bench Boost (if they have it left) in Gameweek 37. I’d say that even though he’s a short-term doubt now, it’s still worth having Gusto ready on the bench over Disasi. Petrovic looks to have nailed down the Chelsea keeper gig. Also it seems a shame not to have three Liverpool this week on Wildcard.
Wildcard Draft 2 - WITH Free Hit remaining
I wanted to include this as an example because you can see how different it is. That’s because you don’t have to load up on Liverpool so much for the Double Gameweek 34 (when the Free Hit will be used) - or dodge Spurs because they Blank in Gameweek 34. Both they and Chelsea are expected to have an extra Double Gameweek in Gameweek 36, so getting them in place looks a big advantage until the FPL Gods intervene.
I would quibble with a few of these picks - Kelleher feels too short term and two cheap strikers means you’re relying on Muñiz to keep it up - but you get the point.
Black cat stops play
Given Bayern’s season, Harry Kane must’ve crossed the path of a few, but here’s a black cat stopping play in, you guessed it, Brazil. Honestly, so many mad items have come from that league that we should really be calling this slot Brazil Nuts. PS - that thing can move.
I WON’T BE ABLE TO DO ANOTHER EDITION BEFORE GAMEWEEK 32 ON SATURDAY, BUT SEE YOU NEXT WEEK. Please get in touch with any FPL dilemmas or general football internet gold. PS - I’m on Twitter here. Please help me grow FPL Is Life by sharing… thanks! Typos entirely deliberate, but thanks for noticing.
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