Navigating the hardest FPL week of the season
Stay for the best reserve keeper goal so far this year
***GAMEWEEK 21 DEADLINE: FRIDAY - 18:15 GMT***
Happy New Year to all the Lifers out there. We’re just about through the mad Christmas fixture pile up - but we’ve emerged into what is shaping up to be one of the hardest weeks FPL has thrown up in recent times. Figuring out how to cope with Salah and Son leaving for international tournaments was hard enough, but now, some other key players in our teams are a doubt for a weird Gameweek spread over two weeks. Bowen and Trent - two huge FPL players - seem to have been ruled out for this Gameweek at the very least. There will be a lot of -4 points hits this week. At least you have FPL Is Life to help, but there’s some elite level FPL thinking needed here. It’s been a lesson in not making early transfers… Oh, and don’t get caught out by the weird Friday deadline!
Got a good differential? Can’t sell Salah? Email me: fplislife@substack.com
Salah & Son out - time to plan
A list of the key players departing for Afcon and the Asian Cup below. The first thing you have to decide this week is who you want to keep or ship out. You can’t keep Salah and Son on the bench - it’s just too much cash. Given the betting odds, Salah is likely to be back first. Also remember we need to be thinking about bringing Haaland back either this week or next. Anyone with two free transfers is lucky - transfers are at a real premium with so much work needed on our teams. I’m tempted to keep Salah if I can. It’s worth using a planner like FPL.team to figure out a strategy, leaving money for Haaland. All players should be back by Gameweek 25 at the latest.
PS - Another thing to consider. Liverpool could have a **Double Gameweek in Gameweek 25**, so there will be some managers trying to hold on to Salah and Trent ahead of that.
Midfield replacements - & an injury for Bowen
There are some really interesting choices if you’re replacing one or both of the big two. Here are the top options to emerge, assuming you don’t have Palmer (if not, get Palmer - he is running the show at Chelsea and is nailed on). Season data: Cost, Expected Assists (xA) & Expected Goals (xG):
Bowen (£8.1m): xA: 0.12 xG: 0.39. Injured, according to this.
Richarlison (£6.9m): xA: 0.10 xG: 0.58. Chaos, but on pens. Werner coming to Spurs creates some uncertainty, as does the Son absence.
Jota (£7.8m): xA: 0.16 xG: 0.41. Great data as ever - but Liverpool without Salah & Trent, the creative engines. Competes for minutes with Gakpo.
Gross (£6.4m): xA: 0.26 xG: 0.21. Looked good again in the FA Cup. Great fixtures in a variable Brighton side.
Foden (£7.9m): xA: 0.21 xG: 0.26. Has been in the form of his life - KDB and Haaland back soon though, so he may no longer be central, where he’s prospered.
De Bruyne? (£10.2m): No useful data. The King is back… but says himself, he will have limited minutes.
Haaland update
Another huge issue for a lot of managers is whether or not we bring back Haaland this week. He didn’t feature at all in the FA Cup, though Man City don’t play Newcastle until Saturday evening, so he has more time to recover. My gut instinct on Haaland is that unless we get any firmer news on him starting, we can probably wait a week until bringing him back. Yes, Newcastle re in pieces and recorded a Prem record xG numbers against them vs Liverpool, but the reality is that there are so many issues in our teams at the moment that is great as Haaland, he will probably get limited minutes at best - and we have other problems to deal with in defence and midfield.
The players getting all the chances
I love the clarity of this chart - it shows how much each player makes up of the total Expected Goals (xG) data of their team. It neatly shows that you they don’t need to be in a hugely attacking team to be worth considering. Apart from the obvious ones, the players that stuck out for me were Solanke (a no brainer at this point), Pedro and Gross from Brighton, and Bowen (sob - he’s now out for a bit). If we didn’t have the poor injury news from him, he’d be right up there. A lot of managers had already brought him in…
Toney is back, but reasons to be cautious
Relief for Brentford as Toney returns - he was a big FPL option before his long ban for betting breaches, with 20 goals and 4 assists last season. At £7.9m, he’s not cheap, but also a viable price. My instincts are that he’s an easy watch and wait at the mo - quite apart from the fact he hasn’t played for months, he’ll be coming back to an underperforming Brentford side with no Mbeumo, who was pretty crucial to Toney’s success. Also, with so many transfer rumours, who knows where he’ll be playing by the end of the month. A big punt to bring him in now, in my opinion.
Trent is injured - some big FPL implications
Trent, one of the best players in the game, is out for “a few weeks” thanks to a tear in his knee. So he misses the next game vs Bournemouth for sure. There are some big implications for Liverpool - does this news make Liverpool attackers, eg Jota/Diaz, less appealing? Should we sell him? Well, although it is potentially short term, selling him may allow you to bring back Haaland more easily - and maybe keep Salah in the process. So it is viable - remember Liverpool may Double in Gameweek 25, though.
Luckily, we suddenly have lots of viable defenders to choose from, which seems to have happened all of a sudden. And all are far cheaper - the key attacking options are Estupiñan (Brighton have a great run now), Porro, and Gusto once again looks like a great budget option (Chelsea play Fulham this week). Alfie Doughty from Luton has also emerged as a great attacking defender at just £4.4m. The below FPL models like Trippier and Man City - but trippier and Newcastle have looked badly out of form, while Man City remains a rotation nightmare.
Second Wildcard is available…!
Even in the last 24 hours - and with a lot of managers already making transfers for players that now seem to be injured - the Wildcard question is being asked. The second Wildcard is now available. Obviously, this is not the best time to be using it - we need to use it to target the big Double Gameweeks where key players play twice. But if you’re desperate, this is a good starting point. It was drawn up before the Bowen and Trent news - that’s how fast things have moved.
The best reserve keeper goal so far this year
This was Arbroath’s reserve goalkeeper, forced to come on as an outfield player as the other subs had been used. Not bad, not bad. The weird thing is, he has form.
Please get in touch with any FPL dilemmas or general football internet gold. PS - I’m on Twitter here. Please help me grow FPL Is Life by sharing… thanks! Typos entirely deliberate, but thanks for noticing.