Recovering from the Gameweek from Hell
Stay for a pretty clear red card
***GAMEWEEK 6 DEADLINE: SATURDAY - 13:30 GMT***
Well, that was painful. If you did badly, well, join the queue. It was a nightmare FPL week, as often seems to happen after international breaks. Man Utd seem to have regained their Banter Club status, the Son hype seems to have lasted a whole week (we did warn you on that last time out), and poor old Nico Jackson at Chelsea currently looks like someone who got to play up front for Chelsea as a raffle prize. He’s looking like a good example of a data trap. Obviously then, he’ll get a haul this week. More on that later.
This week we’ll look at the players that have got managers into the world’s Top 10k, the knee jerk Wildcard, Newcastle defenders, the returns of Salah, the clamour for Alvarez… PS: I’ve waited an extra day to get the first Champions League games out of the way.
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The top owned players of the Top 10k
Here’s where we are in terms of who the top managers have gone for - from the great livefpl.net site. The big one I think may be Alvarez. If he continues to play, he’s a steal. More below. Interesting to see so many had gone for Sterling for Chelsea’s fixture run. Areola is now the cheap keeper of choice, with Turner’s place now under threat at Forest.
It was a bad week. Should you Wildcard?
Yes, it was a disaster for pretty much anyone - if you got into the 50s, you did very well this week. The usual cliche to insert here is “it;’s a good week to have a bad week”, and that is true - some people struggled to make it into the 20s, and their teams really weren’t bad. So is a Rage Wildcard a good idea?
Usually knee jerk decisions are a Bad Idea, but I can see some appeal - Man Utd and Chelsea players are frustrating people - and if you want Salah now, it does require a rebuild. Newcastle defenders are also now a priority. The issue is - Chelsea and Man Utd continue to have good games, so the key question you need to be asking is - do you think they’ll improve, or have you had enough? Personally, I’m holding off for now. Here’s a good draft. Cash is popular - Villa fixtures will get good soon. Obvious additions… Diaby, Rashford, Trippier…
Jackson was bad again - other forward options
I’m not one to dump on a player - Nicolas Jackson was never meant to be leading the line at this point in his Chelsea career and he never asked to be picked by so many FPL managers - but despite great fixtures, he has struggled. He’s looking like the classic Data Trap. He’s 2nd for Big Chances, 2nd for Expected Goals & 5th for Shots in the Box. But watching him doesn’t inspire confidence. And he’s now one booking away from a suspension, too. Do you hold him for Villa, Fulham and Burnley? If you’ve had enough, below are the main options (or Luton’s Morris has a Double Gameweek soon, if you want to go there…)
Alternatives:
Alvarez (£6.8m): 1.87 Expected Goals, non-penalty - 2.90 Expected Goal Involvement
Watkins (£7.9m): 2.38xGnp - 2.60xGi
Wissa (£6.1m): 2.67xGnp - 2.81xGi
Chilwell didn’t start - should we be worried?
He had been playing left wing and Mudryk was preferred this week, so it is a worry given how popular he’s been in FPL. There are some worrying quotes from Poch doing the rounds, but context is needed - he made them before the Bournemouth game - and given Mudryk struggled in the game, he may well be back soon. Chelsea have struggled, but their defensive data is good (3rd lowest for Expected Goal Involvement against them) and they have Villa, Fulham & Burnley next. I think I’d fix issues elsewhere before bombing him out of the team.
Alternatives - Newcastle are now right at the top in terms of their fixture run, so Trippier for those with cash, Botman for those without, and Schar for a bit of extra attacking threat.
It looks like the teams to target is predictable
It was a mess of results at the weekend and carnage in terms of FPL points. But if we go back to look at the Big Picture, the underlying data does at least tell us that the teams we’d think are the ones to target are working about to be the weakest sides. Here’s a league table of Expected Goals Against - it’s what you’d expect… plus Man Utd. It makes losing Chelsea players a bit harder: Fulham & Burnley after this week.
We have to talk about Salah again…
He was unlucky to only get 10 points at the weekend. Liverpool generally look much improved and they’re at the top of the fixture ticker over the next six games - if we ignore Burnley and Luton, who have a Double Gameweek soon.
It is true that Salah is now more tilted towards assists than goals - he’s top in the league for Big Chances Created. And he has Actual FPL points - the 2nd top midfielder behind the all-conquering Mbeumo (who is also a very good transfer in this week if you still don’t own him). But again - the next two fixtures aren’t great. He has West Ham and Spurs next up - but we’ll definitely want him after that. Bringing him in early is the biggest argument for a Wildcard now. Fixtures here sorted by difficulty:
Alvarez is the new Son (and Sterling)
Choo choo! The Alvarez hype train is up and running. The Argentinian is the latest hype player in FPL this season, after Sterling and Son (you were warned about the Spurs Scramble last week). It’s not hard to see why Alvarez is popular. He’s cheap (up to £6.8m), he’s scoring points and, with injuries, he’s got a spot in the best team. The arguments for Alvarez are strengthened by a dearth of alternatives.
It is true he has been over-performing his Expected Goal data - but with the Bernardo Silva injury this week, Alvarez does seem as nailed as is possible under Pep. This time, it’s very hard to argue against bringing him in (cue a benching). He did play in the Champions League and smashed it…
Football x Kung Fu
The game’s really going when the ref gives a straight red for this challenge in the Honduran league. Maybe it was a yellow card for each of the players taken out. Either way, I’d have played on.
Please get in touch with any FPL dilemmas or general football internet gold. PS - I’m on Twitter here. Please help me grow FPL Is Life by sharing… thanks! Typos entirely deliberate, but thanks for pointing them out.