The Big Pre-Kick Off FPL Shortlist!
Stay for my latest draft team
The indecision will soon be final. The tinkering will come to an end. yes, the innocence of pre-season, when we can imagine a glorious FPL victory before we’re made to look utterly clueless by the Footballing Gods, is coming to an end. This is the last FPL Is Life before kick off and it is a BIG ONE. I’ve come up with an FPL shortlist of picks to consider, and then gone into a bit more details with each position. Also some excellent stuff from the FPL Community on pre-season high achievers and some great goalscoring odds. A weird thing I noticed putting this together - so many decisions come down to how you see Liverpool.
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The teams projected to score the most
Your latest reminder that this is a game of goals, assists and clean sheets. Instead of looking at the fixtures, here’s another good way to look at the same thing. This top piece of work if from the Elevenify account, which does loads of great work with odds stats and the like. Here’s what it comes up with for the top scorers in the first six Gameweeks. It’s a rush to quality. Dare you try to pick the City player who bangs?
Some big & annoying injuries have hit
The so-called FPL “template” (the players that seem to be in all the teams of the obsessives) has got a lot stronger in the last week or so because of some annoying injury news. Jesus has undergone knee surgery and won’t be an option for Gameweek 1. A lot of people were going for him. Then Nkunku became a major doubt for Chelsea and the latest isn’t good.
The FPL Is Life shortlist
Let me be clear from the off - this is NOT an exhaustive list of the only players you should pick. It’s meant to serve as a good starting point for building a team. If you start with 15 of these lads, you’re unlikely to go far wrong over the opening period. There’s some other good lists out there, like this one. We’ll get into more detail below.
Keepers
Onana looks a cheap way into the Man United defence and Flekken should start now for Brentford with Raya off to Arsenal (which makes Pickford too risky a pick). Steele could be considered, though a possible threat there from Bart Verbruggen. Matt Turner to Forest has mixed things up (if it happens) as the second keeper cheap option.
Defenders - Trent or no Trent
Estupiñan is a gift at £5m. Trent is the big decision here - at £8m, he seems unfairly priced when compared to other options, but he’ll be shifted to a midfield pivot role in games. Stones is way cheaper (£5.5m) and has been very popular again, shifting into midfield - but with Gvardiol arriving for just £5m(!), there’s another Man City selection headache. James has a terrible injury record and despite rumours he could be on penalties now, Chilwell is surely the clear favourite if you fancy a punt on the new look Chelsea defence. At Arsenal, loads of options - Timber could challenge Zinchenko by the looks of the Community Shield. Loads of playing cheap lads to choose so far - all the Bs: Baldock, Bell, Beyer. Kabore is another Luton option.
There’s a hugely detailed Twitter thread on the defensive options below from a generally excellent FPL account.
Midfielders - an Arsenal puzzle
Liverpool again providing the big decision here. A big split this season will be Salah. That game vs Bournemouth in Gameweek 2 is very tempting, though we all know what happened last year (if you’ve blocked it out, he Blanked in. 9-0 win). Saka seems as close as we’ll get to an essential player - he’s just too cheap at £8.5m. Odegaard/Martinelli is tough - and Havertz could play through the middle. Ode for security, Martinelli for X factor and Havertz for the high risk/reward, would be how I see it. There will be rotation though - Trossard is also in the mix. That’s just life. The £6.5m midfielder slot is a tricky one, too - Mitoma, Eze and Mbeumo are joined by a late run from Diaby at Villa. No teams had more shots on target last season than Brighton. Expect more rotation though, as they attempt to conquer Europe, and that they have lost big players in Mac Allister and (probably) Caicedo. Eze banged in pre-season.
A great chart here that looks at minutes and goal involvement per 90 mins for MIDs. We want them to play a lot & score points when they’re on the field. Top right = good.
Forwards - not many options
Not much to say about Haaland, other than respect to the 14% of players who currently haven’t picked him. The two big injuries have robbed us for options here. As a result, we’ll see a lot more people playing 5 in midfield. Watkins is a blameless pick here - a solid expected goal involvement of 0.54 per90 last season and Villa have strengthened. Not a sexy pick, though. Darwin is sheer chaos, but not a guaranteed starter in Gameweek 1 vs Chelsea. There’s a late flurry of interest in Joao Pedro at Brighton - he looks good, but again not nailed on to play every game. Wilson at Newcastle is for the brave - great stats, but the fixtures are hard and the injury record terrible. The fitness of Calvert Lewin continues to make him a no go - I think he’s only played 45mins in pre-season.
Template breakers
As I said, the shortlist I put together isn’t exhaustive. So what are the players that could be a decent option that will be largely ignored by the FPL diehards? It comes back to Liverpool again - if you’ve looked at Liverpool and seen something in Jota, Darwin or Gakpo, then Liverpool is a high risk/reward side. Likewise with Man City - no one is talking about Grealish but he is beloved of Pep. Alvarez is ludicrously cheap at £6.5m, but is a punt as soon as KDB is back. Richarlison becomes an option if Kane goes, but it doesn’t look like that’ll happen pre-kick off. Then there’s Kane if he stays - he was insanely consistent last season in FPL. Again at Arsenal, some may fancy a punt on Trossard or Havertz, who could find himself playing through the middle again.
The only pre-season Tweet you need…
An amazing download of data in a single tweet if you click below - it shows the best pre-season performers. It’s an example of the brilliant, free content that FPL obsessives produce each week if you can find it (which you can, because it’s all in FPL Is Life for, um, free…)
My current draft with a few days to go…
So this will change for sure, but this is my general feeling as we head to kick off. There’s just so much value in midfield, I like the five across the middle plan. Chilwell vs Stones is hard. Also, I’m wondering if I can find a way to take a gamble on Alvarez by having a good player who comes on if he doesn’t start. Martinelli’s minutes worry me - as does no Liverpool…
LAST TIP: There’s a great free model at fplreview.com where you can plan your team and get points predictions. I have no idea who runs it and have no connection to it - it’s just a good free resource. Happy drafting!
Please get in touch with any FPL dilemmas or general football internet gold. PS - I’m on Twitter here. Please help me grow FPL Is Life by sharing… thanks! Typos entirely deliberate, but thanks for pointing them out.