The early FPL picks of the top managers
Stay for an amazing FPL start from... Harvey Barnes
***GAMEWEEK 2 DEADLINE: SATURDAY - 11:00 GMT***
The answer was Haaland. Many an FPL manager was conflicted right up to the deadline over whether to go for Haaland or Kane. It looked so close before a ball as kicked, but the outcome was brutally in favour of Haaland, who scored twice, confirmed he was on penalties and generally suggested this season is going to be a bulldozer job for Man City. If you had a bad week, don’t worry - anything can happen in a single set of games.
What you do with Man City this week is probably the big decision, as we’ll discuss below. Also this week, we’ve got the most popular picks for the Top 10k managers, opening week stats monsters, some surprise stand outs from the first weekend, a cheap goalkeeper hack … and Salah vs Haaland for this week’s captaincy. Also, we’ll see how well Prem players do at FPL…
Questions? Recriminations? Email me: fplislife@substack.com
Here’s the team the Top 10k players have
We basically knew this last week, but data from the brilliant website LiveFPL.net tells us there are the most popular players with the people who did best - the Top 10k players are generally a good guide through the season, because it’s a group of hyper-engaged players doing well. No surprises here, though you’d think this would change to having three Man City players this week as they play Bournemouth.
The players who did well at the weekend based on underlying stats
So FPL Is Life won’t make you study stats - the only stats you need to know are “expected goals” (xG), “expected assists” (xA) - and the combination fo the two - “expected goal involvement” (xGi). This tells us, based on the positions and performance of the players, the numbers of goals and assists we would expect them to get, based on the history of football. EG, they may have got into great positions and not scored - but their “xGi” would encourage us to keep them, rather than sell.
Here’s the top ten based on one game… Darwin Núñez didn’t even play the whole game… *eyes emoji*
Mitrovic and the other first-week hits
Kudos to anyone who went with Mitrovic on the opening weekend. Not only did he only get three goals last time he was in the Prem, but he opened with Liverpool this time. Two goals and he looked great. Other non-obvious players that stood out for me this weekend:
Andreas Pereira (Fulham) - super cheap midfielder (£4.5m) already in a lot of teams, but was heavily involved and looks like a decent starter if needed.
Zinchenko (Arsenal) - an advanced full-back in a decent-looking Arsenal team. Arsenal were fortunate to come away with the clean sheet, though.
Callum Wilson (Newcastle). Newcastle produced the highest “expected goal” data of the opening weekend and if he can stay fit, Wilson will benefit.
Andersen (Crystal Palace) - sprayed the ball about all night and could get the odd attacking return. Only £4.5m. One for the Watchlist.
The greatest FPL manager did the Leicester keepers hack
Just before the FPL Gameweek 1 deadline, Leicester sold their keeper Kasper Schmeichel - it meant you could buy the two remaining Leicester keepers, Ward and Iversen, who cost £4m each and save some cash. Leicester have mixed/bad fixtures to start and they could still buy a replacement, so it’s a gamble. It didn’t pay off in Gameweek 1 with Leicester conceding 2 to Brentford. But Fabio Borges, probably the greatest ever FPL manager, went for the Leicester keeper hack - so it is worth considering if you need cash. Here’s the Great One’s Gameweek 1 team (78 points):
Winner of the £8m midfielder battle is…
Before the Gameweek 1 deadline, there was a huge discussion about which was the £8m midfiedler to go for. There’s a great choice - Diaz, Maddison, Kulusevski, Saka, Foden, Mount. Diaz isn’t included in the below, but from the data here, Kulusevski and Maddison stood out. Note: there are Maddison sale rumours.
What is wrong with this picture?
Yes, there’s four Arsenal players. This manager brought in Zinchenko while he was still at Man City. It means he beats the rule that means you can only have a maximum of three players per Premier League team, but you have to correct it with your first sub. Still, it made them a few points here…
Picking your Man City three looks important
Do you need three City? And if so, do you go double defence or double attack? They looked solid in defence against West Ham on the opening weekend. They are also fancied offensively this week. This is probably the big decision for this week - but they are the team to focus on vs Bournemouth. Haaland looks like a must after his double on debut. However, there’s an interesting question about Cancelo - there are early suggestions he’s not as attacking this season. Is he worth the £7m? Could you buy the other defenders (eg Dias at £6m/Walker at £5m) and save cash? One to watch. KDB or Grealish are differential punts this week.
Teams most likely to score big this week…
A great thread here on Gameweek 2 - which includes this stat built on betting odds. It underlines that Man City is your big decision if you are making a transfer this week. Still as hard as ever to pick guaranteed starters in attack other than KDB and Haaland.
It’s Haaland vs Salah for the captaincy
It seems like a toss up between these lads this week, and there will be a few weeks where this is the choice. This clever person has built a model and simulated their predicted points, or “expected value” (EV) and… it’s basically a coin toss.
Harvey Barnes is good at FPL
At least, he had a great opening week. Thanks to this site, we can see how various Prem players have done with their opening team. A huge 81 points for Barnes, who captained Haaland and left out Salah. John McGinn had a shocker with 41 points - but then, he did pick himself. Barnes’ team here:
Please get in touch with any FPL dilemmas or general football internet gold. Remember the DEADLINES and see you next week! I’m on Twitter here. Please help me grow FPL Is Life by sharing… thanks!