***GAMEWEEK 20 DEADLINE: SATURDAY - 11:00 GMT***
Happy New Year to all the Lifers out there. We’re just about through the mad Christmas fixture pile up. To be honest, it’s been more like Halloween, with some teams looking like the living dead thanks to injuries and suspensions to key players - Lascelles injured, Tsimikas out, the likes of Palmer playing out a one match ban in the last Gameweek. In fact, the whole uncertainty over Haaland’s fitness and the coming departures of the likes of Salah, Son, Mbeumo et al. for international tournaments mean that the whole game is a bout to change a lot. So i had to do a newsletter before the weekend. Time to fly up the rankings in 2024.
Got a good differential? Decent turkey soup recipe? Email me: fplislife@substack.com
Top managers are upgrading their defences
Here are the most popular players of the managers in the top10k in the world in FPL. No surprises in midfield, but the top managers have been moving towards a stronger defence - the consistent returns of Trent and Porro - have seen them brought in. But that’s really driven by the fact that they’ve all sold Haaland, freeing up a lot of funds (he can come back when Salah etc go to Afcon next week). Trent and Porro look great picks - though Spurs have yet more defensive injuries, which may hit Porro’s clean sheet odds a bit.
When to buy players from each team
A great “hop on, hop off” fixture guide from the great @Legomane_FPL twitter account. The teams with the best fixtures over the next 8 Gameweeks are great teams - Villa, Brighton, Man City, Arsenal and Spurs. We could be looking again at Estupiñan, Foden… and especially when Son goes, Richarlison looks a bargain. Some are bringing him in this week.
A Wildcard for Gameweek 20
First of all, if you’ve held your Wildcard this long, you must be some kind of Zen master. Here’s a good draft from the Let’s Talk FPL channel. Interesting to see they’ve gone for City, who play Sheffield Utd this week. The idea here is to leave money in the bank so you can sub out Salah and bring in Haaland for a -4 next week. Not ideal, but probably the right way to go.
It doesn’t sound like Haaland will play this week
There’s a quote doing the rounds from Pep about Haaland’s fitness - he suggests he won’t be back until January, which would seem to rule out Gameweek 20 and the plum game vs Sheffield Utd. It actually makes things easier, because we don’t have to take out Son or Salah a week before they leave fora few weeks. But if you’ve held on to Haaland, there’s a hard choice to make. Selling him has turned out to be thew right call. This is why many are punting on Alvarez this week. Remember to check the latest info on Haaland, as managers often bluff.
Man City are the clear pick this week
Data on this week’s clean sheet and Expected Goals stats below - Man City way out in front, as you might expect with their fixture. With Haaland back soon, Alvarez seems too short term if you don’t already have him - but it is the sort of fixture that can deliver big, so fair enough if you’re feeling it. Foden and Walker seem safer picks, though the defence seems a constant frustration in terms of conceding the odd goal and rotation.
Loads of midfield options have emerged
The standard midfield five has been Salah, Son, Palmer, Gordon and Saka. The two biggies are off next week, some are going off Saka and Gordon now has tough fixtures, so things are being shaken up. Lucky then, that there are loads of midfield options to get us thinking. Here are five with Expected Assist (xA), Expect Goal (xG) data:
Odegaard (£8.4m): xA: 0.23 xG: 0.25. Seems back to his best after a dip.
Bowen (£7.9m): xA: 0.13 xG: 0.43. A talisman, but fixtures not great.
Jota (£7.7m): xA: 0.08 xG: 0.42. The Salah stand in?
Richarlison (£6.8m): xA: 0.10 xG: 0.49. Should be a safe pick with Son out.
Gross (£6.4m): xA: 0.27 xG: 0.17. Unfashionable, but averaging 4.84 points a game. Brighton fixtures now more favourable.
There are now a few cheap defenders to go for
Big injuries to Lascelles and Tsimikas, who many have relied on. If you’ve already got in a premium defender, then there are now some cheap options, too, if needed. Villa have the fixtures and Konsa seems a good choice at £4.6m (though Moreno now looks a good option at £5 with Digne injured). Other cheap options are Gusto (£4.1m) back for Chelsea and Branthwaite (£4.1m) from a rejuvenated Everton.
Even more detail about the departures
REPEAT, REPEAT: Son, Salah, Hwang, Mbeumo, Kudus are all away from next week. Here’s an updated graphic from last week, this tie with percentage chance of a return attached for each week. very helpful! You probably need a plan to remove either Salah or Son if you have both. You’ll lose a lot of value you’ve made if you’ve had them a long time, but everyone is in the same boat. No need to be taking out one for Haaland this week though, as Haaland seems unlikely to play vs Sheffield Utd (see above).
Another Egyptian mystery
We all love a bad miss. Here’s a belter. Ceramica Cleopatra's striker Ahmed Rayan is the guilty party.
Please get in touch with any FPL dilemmas or general football internet gold. PS - I’m on Twitter here. Please help me grow FPL Is Life by sharing… thanks! Typos entirely deliberate, but thanks for noticing.
Thanks for doing these. Great stuff. Things getting interesting for me - top 2k as it stands!