Wildcard wipeout and epic FPL pain
Stay for a team that would be 118th in the world... with no transfers
***GAMEWEEK 27 DEADLINE: SATURDAY - 11:00 GMT***
This week, FPL Twitter came as close to armageddon as we’re likely to get without becoming a nuclear power. It was blown up by a single fixture - Liverpool’s 7-0 throttling of Man Utd. With a mess of fixtures on the way, loads of people used their Wildcard - and pretty much everyone ditched the Liverpool lads. Some managers’ Wildcard teams scored less than Salah, Darwin and Trent did between them. Ah, Classic FPL. More on the Wildcard pain below. PS - Wildcards aren’t just for one week, so maybe things will improve for anyone who used it last week..? Maybe?
This week: The Wildcard disaster in full, the data on *that* Liverpool game, best players for predicted points this week, more FPL pain, a Wildcard for this week, benching dilemmas and the world’s best “zombie” team.
Am I missing something? Need to cry about your Wildcard? Email me: fplislife@substack.com
Gameweek 26 Wildcard: a disaster story
As I said last week, using the Wildcard became a massive thing among FPL content creators and obsessed managers. The idea was to set teams up for the Double Gameweek this week (Brighton and Brentford play twice), the Blank Gameweek next week, and the huge Double Gameweek after the international break. It also saw everyone take out Liverpool players. What could possibly go wrong? Several managers report losing out on 50-dd points in a single week. Truly, the stuff of FPL legend. Worth remembering that Wildcards I highlighted last week set managers up for Gameweeks 26-29, so things may improve. But those who held the Liverpool lads are in great shape and you probably saw a huge boost in overall rank. Congrats!
This guy forgot the deadline and…
An FPL dream comes true. The best thing about this is that this manager is one of the leading analytical accounts for FPL. Yes, the obsessives forget deadlines, too. Lovely stuff, this. Captain Salah got 42 points.
What the data says about the 7-0 & Salah
Obviously no one can predict a weird result like Liverpool 7-0 Man Utd. But were managers who ditched Liverpool players unlucky? It’s not wise to use “expected goal” data for a single game - it’s much better over a period - but you can see from the table below that Salah’s “expected points” from the chances he had was 9.7. He actually scored 21(!). Liverpool’s “xG” (expected goals) was 2.8, but they scored 7. So the data suggests the obvious - this was a freak result. Having said that, Liverpool remain 5th overall for expected goals per 90 minutes, so they’ve always produced chances even during this tricky season for them - and they have a hapless Bournemouth next…
Predicted points - target Brighton/Brentford
Two teams have a Double Gameweek. Brighton have Leeds (a) and Palace (H). Brentford have Everton (a) and Southampton (a). So it’s no surprise that Brighton and Brentford players come high up in the predicted points models and they will be top of the list for transfers this week. Toney is top. He looked terrific vs Fulham and scored the penalty. He’ll be a lot of people’s captain this week. Which Brighton midfielder to get remains a lottery - March comes top on predicted points, but actually blanked at the weekend when Mitoma and Mac Allister (who is on penalties) got the points. Honestly, just get the one that gives you most joy.
It’s hard to have a bad team this week
Yes, Brighton and Brentford have the Double, but all the best teams have a great single fixture. Liverpool play Bournemouth - they could punish the sellers even more this week. Man Utd play Southampton, Arsenal play Fulham and Newcastle play Wolves. Man City have Palace. There is plenty of scope for some serious FPL pain this week as it could be very high scoring.
A Wildcard for this week
Again, a Wildcard for this week needs to set you up for this week, the Blank Gameweek next week and the massive Double Gameweek after the international break - that’s three consecutive Gameweeks of FPL chaos. The Wildcard will be very similar to Wildcards played last week - but you’ve now got a decision on whether to keep Salah. Also, there is an argument for dropping Haaland (what could go wrong?), as this draft from Let’s Talk FPL does. That’s because he doesn’t play next week and only has one game in the big Double Gameweek 29. Someone like Watkins plays next week and then has a double. I’m not sure I would be brave enough to drop RoboBeast.
Sanchez seems to have been dropped
One extra blow for some of those who Wildcarded last week with Sanchez, the Brighton keeper. He now appears to have been dropped and replaced by Steele, who costs just £3.9m. It could be an opportunity for anyone who Wildcards now to save cash. There is risk attached, given Steele has only just got the chance.
There will be benching dilemmas this week
There are so many good fixtures for the good teams this week that you’ll probably notice you have a benching dilemma. The main thing to realise is that you’re not alone. In fact, some people will choose to use their Bench Boost. Go for it if you’re feeling it - it’s a completely viable option. Just be aware that it’s likely Gameweek 29 will offer a better chance, as so many players will have two games that week.
The best “zombie” team possible
How do I know I’m wasting my life? Because if I’d just picked the below team instead of spending hours on planning and staring at obscure football stats sites, I’d almost be inside the top 100 players in the world now. Ah well. It’s a fun hobby, right? Right?! Kudos to this awesome tweeter for the data.
Please get in touch with any FPL dilemmas or general football internet gold. Remember the DEADLINES and see you next week! I’m on Twitter here. Please help me grow FPL Is Life by sharing… thanks!