Your Free Hit is in the hands of Man Utd
Stay for Jesse Marsch being Peak US Soccer
GAMEWEEK 33 DEADLINE: SATURDAY, 11:00 GMT
So did you have Son or not? That will basically dictate whether you had a good week or a bad one - in some cases, a really bad one. Especially for the many people who ditched Son for Kane a couple of weeks ago. Just the 48 points in the last three Gameweeks for Son. But last week is done. There’s a new cast of players to crush your dreams this week, so let’s go.
This week: with some teams having two games and others having none, loads of people will Free Hit. So we look at Newcastle and Man Utd, who hold the key, and some Free Hit drafts - but we also look at bringing in Son, teams with the easiest remaining fixtures, some Matt Doherty replacements and Jesse Marsch being Peak US Soccer Ball.
Loads of people are Free Hitting
Do you have a Free Hit left? Do you think Man Utd and Newcastle are any good? If your answer is “yes and yes”, then deploying the Free Hit is the play. Utd play Norwich (H) and Liverpool (a), so it’s all about that home game. Newcastle have Leicester (H) and Crystal Palace (H), so a decent clean sheet chance. Leicester and Arsenal are the other two teams to look at.
There’s a big drawback - some of the best teams have one game, but one good game - Man City and Spurs both play Brighton. Liverpool play Man Utd, which isn’t great, but Salah got that hat-trick in the reverse fixture. But using a Free Hit and then playing 3 or 4 single Gameweek players seems a waste. So it’s a Free Hit with big upside and downside. The best thing is it allows you to get Man Utd and Newcastle players without having to commit to them.
The best Newcastle defenders
Newcastle have two decent home games. So which Newcastle defender is most likely to get an attacking return? From the below stats, it’s Targett over the season (this includes his time at Aston Villa) or Schar over the last 10 games - essentially since the transfer window closed and Newcastle 2.0 loaded. Burn is nice and cheap if needed. I chucked in the two striker options, too. Is anyone brave enough to go Chris Wood upfront? There aren’t many options… so probably.
How bad are Man Utd? It’s all relative
They’re not great for Man Utd, but you also have to put their badness in perspective. This is a team that has created a lot of chances and is currently seventh with a game in hand on sixth. They are fifth over the season for expected goal involvements per 90 minutes, excluding penalties. Their crapness is relative. Fernandes, Ronaldo and one other (Sancho or Telles, probably) are the obvious options.
Ronaldo smashed a phone and it’s got people worried
He did this. Could he miss the plum Norwich game? Seems unlikely, but worth checking the press conference quotes from Rangnick on Friday. He’s apologised and got the fan free tickets (just buy a new phone, no?)
Here’s some Free Hit drafts…
Draft 1 - ALL IN. Gamble it all on the unreliable Double Gameweek teams with the best fixtures. And pray. Leicester are the other team in that boat - a good side, but their Europe involvement makes rotation a big risk. Perhaps Schmeichel is the best bet - and I’d probably choose one of Barnes/Maddison.
Draft 2 - Hedging Your Bets. This is more like what I’d go for, but I’m a wimp. Two highly-owned single Gameweek players in there.
Should you now have Kane and Son?
Son’s hat-trick has got people thinking about whether we need to be switching to Son, or crowbarring Kane and Son into a team that also is likely to have Salah and some pricey defenders. A good thread below on which is better to own. CONCLUSION - it depends on formation, but probably Son in the next two, then Kane.
Son has also been a player that outperforms his expected gaols (xG) data, but the data from the Villa game was unsustainable (surely) - his xG was 0.57 and he scored 3. As a non-owner, I’m trying not to panic. Owning both might be an option for anyone with a Wildcard, but there are big compromises elsewhere.
The difficulty of each team’s remaining fixtures
We looked at Crystal Palace defence a few weeks ago and this makes them look even more tempting… but remember some key teams have Doubles to come - Leicester have loads of fixtures, so this looks good for them.
A good Tweet about Leicester players
A decent team with lots of games and good fixtures. What could possibly go wrong?
Doherty is out for the season - replacements
Obviously those boringly great players if you have the money - Alexander Arnold, Robertson, James, Cancelo (yawn)… but here’s 4 other interesting ones from @TheFPLWay…
Jesse Marsch nails it
A few weeks ago, I wrote in praise of the US-style penalties from the 90s (such a shame it didn’t catch on). Someone’s found a clip of Jesse Marsch doing one - and he nails it. The poor guy still gets asked Ted Lasso-type questions - forgive us this one, Jesse.
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