Medic! Solving FPL's defender crisis
Stay for a player losing the ball in a terrific way
***GAMEWEEK 11 DEADLINE: FRIDAY - 18:30 GMT***
Time to ditch Haaland? Only one goal at the weekend - very disappointing. Still, he’s only 8 goals away from equalling last season’s Golden Boot total, with just the 29 Premier League games left. He’s doing ok.
First off, thanks to the FPL Tips newsletter for mentioning FPL Is Life last week - and welcome to the new subscribers. Luckily, we have plenty of new dilemmas to consider in this edition. This newsletter is usually every Wednesday morning - but there are midweek games next week - the crucial Gameweek 12 - so I’m planning to do an extra, shorter email on Tuesday morning, ahead of that.
THIS WEEK: Planning for the Gameweek 12 Blank, fixtures until the World Cup, the Liverpool crisis, defenders dropping like flies, a Wildcard, and a proper look at Salah’s stats. Ah - and an insanely funny Bradford City thing. DON’T FORGET THE FRIDAY DEADLINE.
Transfer dilemma? Crushing sense of existential dread? Email me: fplislife@substack.com
Think about that Man City/Arsenal Blank
The FPL Gods have created a situation in which we are being encouraged to sell the players from the two best teams. In the Gameweek after this weekend (Gameweek 12), Man City and Arsenal have no game. PLAN NOW: We basically have two free transfers to make sure we can get 11 players out. You can obviously bench three Man City/Arsenal players, but we need squad players to *actually play*.
In most cases, you’ll be keeping and benching Haaland and Martinelli - two great picks that have increased in value a lot. Holding on to Cancelo looks a good idea after his weekend haul. Then it’s a case of temporarily removing players like KDB, Foden and Jesus. The key thing is to have a plan now so you’re not taking unnecessary points hits next week. Go to a transfer planner like this one to have a think.
Fixtures until the World Cup
The World Cup kicks off after Gameweek 16 and we all get unlimited transfers during the tournament. So we’re now playing a six-game mini contest. Fixtures below. Thoughts: Other than Palace, bad teams have the best fixtures. Zaha and a Palace defender (Guehi, Andersen) look a good bet - Edouard is looking good, but isn’t guaranteed a starting place. After Gameweek 12, it’s all about getting Man City/Arsenal players back in.
Liverpool disaster - Trent/Diaz both doubts
It feels like Liverpool are paying the price now for their amazing title challenge last season, where they somehow ran Man City close. Now, Diaz and Trent Alexander Arnold are both out, on top of Robertson and Matip. It means you should probably keep all Man City attackers that you have this week for the big game at Anfield. Some alternatives below - more on defenders to buy next…
Defender injury crisis - here are the options
Good news for England’s Gareth Southgate - your right-back selection headache is over, because they’re all injured. Trent and Walker are out - Reece James limped off last night. WAIT FOR NEWS, but in case he’s out too, let’s look at the (uninspiring) options.
If you don’t have Trippier, get Trippier. Newcastle don’t have the best fixtures, but they have good defensive stats and he’s one of very few fit attacking defenders. Palace have the best long-term fixtures (see above), but Brighton look a decent bet in the short term - they play Brentford, then Nottingham Forest in that tricky Gameweek 12. Dunk (£4.6m) and Webster (£4.5m) look good options.
Other options: Maybe Dalot (cheap) at Man Utd or a Wolves defender - probably Kilman. Just don’t expect attacking returns. Spurs and Chelsea have great defenders, but there’s huge rotation in both sides at the moment so it’s a risk to go there. We need these players to play in Gameweek 12, remember.
If it’s going badly, don’t panic
If you’re still languishing in the FPL doldrums, don’t panic - the game is still very congested. One good week, and you can shoot up. Apart from Haaland being captain every week, the game is offering us loads of options elsewhere to make up ground. The below graphic shows just how bunched up the overall rank levels are:
Congratulations to anyone with a Wildcard
There are now a load of injury issues on top of that Gameweek 12 Blank, so anyone who has their Wildcard intact is in a great place. There’s an argument for using it in Gameweek 13, to bring back all those Man City and Arsenal players. But if you use it now, it’s all about those mid-priced mids. KEEP SOME CASH SPARE to bring in eg Trent later. Here’s a quick Gameweek 11 Wildcard draft from @FPL_Harry (if James is out, I’d go for a Brighton defender):
Salah stats - is he worth the risk?
Salah was the obvious player for many to bring in and captain in Gameweek 12. But the combination of his price, points returns and the emergence of high performing, mid-price midfielders (Maddison, Zaha, Bowen, Saka, Foden, Trossard) mean it’s hard to make a case for him. I took a look to see how his performance compares historically. The truth is, his data really isn’t *that bad* - yes his expected goal data is down a bit, but not massively. There’s a shift to assists and he seems to play a bit wider, but mainly the data suggests he’s low in confidence - his goal conversion is way down.
So what to do in Gameweek 12? The question to ask yourself is this - with Trent and Diaz probably out, will Salah step up the way we know he can? Or will Liverpool simply be a worse team? The fact that we won’t captain Salah outside Gameweek 12 probably means he’s just too much of a luxury. BUT now he’s owned by just 26% of teams & has fallen to £12.7m, he could be a decent punt. Stats below - you decide:
Mount is worth watching
Chelsea have been disappointing in attack, but there’s an excellent Twitter thread below, suggesting that Mount is emerging as a decent option under Potter. He’s arriving late in the box and also taking up an advanced position. One for the Watchlist. PS - Kulusevski is also on the way back for Spurs.
I can’t describe this, but it’s terrific content
Simply *the* best slip-spin-lose-the-ball-pass-back you’ll ever see from Bradford’s Yann Songo'o. Yann, FPL Is Life thanks you.
Please get in touch with any FPL dilemmas or general football internet gold. Remember the DEADLINES and see you next week! I’m on Twitter here. Please help me grow FPL Is Life by sharing… thanks!