10 rules to improve your FPL performance
Stay for a glorious pre-season own goal...
Something a bit different this week. There are still two editions of FPL Is Life to come before the start of the season, so we have loads of time to talk squads, players and drafts. So there’s time for a post on the big FPL picture - I’ve put together 10 Rules to keep in mind throughout the season. I hope they’re a good primer for those playing seriously for the first time or a decent refresher for the veterans. Obviously, FPL Is Life has your back all season, but I reckon these are a good starting point. Any contradictions are entirely on purpose.
Ultimately, there’s a boring truth - people who do well at FPL aren’t necessarily those who “know most” about football (though that helps, obv). They’re often just the people who understand *the game* best. It is a game in its own right - you have to play it with regard to the way the rules and format are laid out. These 10 Tips should help…
Suggestions? Pre-season questions? Searing criticism? Email me: fplislife@substack.com
1. Respect these THREE routes to points
The FPL points system is here - but you don’t need to read it. It’s about clean sheets, assists and goals. Yes, I love N’Golo Kante too, but this isn’t real life - you’re not Thomas Tuchel. You don’t need to stress about protecting your back four. Prioritise players that have obvious routes to points. Eg, are they on set pieces (see below)? How advanced/central do they seem on the pitch? On clean sheets, this means being aware of the best defences (Man City by a mile) - but attacking defenders are gold, as they get attacking returns and more points for goals.
2. Fixtures, fixtures, fixtures
So there’s an age-old football debate over which is more important - form or fixtures? In FPL, it’s much simpler - fixtures are king. And more than that - they’re a huge slice of information we get given before a ball is kicked. You can’t plan ahead too much in FPL, but fixtures do help us pencil in plans to bring in players at certain times. Luckily, you have FPL Is Life to help you navigate the fixture swings… also there’s a great fixtures resource here.
3. Play players that play
Seems obvious, right? But things change fast in modern football - a player can find themselves out of favour. There may be explosive players who look a great price (Mahrez is a recent example), but if they ain’t getting on the pitch, they ain’t gunna get you FPL points. This is now generally referred to as xMinutes (expected minutes) and it’s a thing. In your picks, it’s worth thinking about rotation vulnerability in their position and, later in the season, whether European competitions will play a role in their Premier League minutes.
4. Use chips in “double” and “blank” Gameweeks
This is probably the main thing that less obsessed players don’t do, which is easy to do. Those weird buttons that give you extra points - Triple Captain, Bench Boost, Free Hit - are precious. Don’t waste them. In theory, it’s basically best to use a Free Hit on a Blank Gameweek - ie, a week when some players (that you own) don’t have a game. It means your chances of getting more points for your Free Hit team than your regular team is very high (Free Hit allows you to pick a whole new team for one week only).
Likewise, playing the Bench Boost or Triple Captain chip in a Double Gameweek, when key players have two games, is a good plan. Don’t worry - FPL IS Life will give you loads of notice of these big FPL weeks.
5. Ask, what would Fabio do?
People have tried to find the best FPL player of all time and basically it’s this guy - Fabio Borges. So it’s a decent idea to think about what Fabio does. He’s given a few online interviews. His FPL strategy is mainly about patience and guidance from, long-term, underlying stats - but one good point he makes is that he tries to focus on players in good teams. The point is, there are poor sides with great players, but over a longer period, players playing in better teams (say, the Top 6/8) have a greater chance of points (Mason Mount..?). A THREAD on his views below:
6. Patience (usually) pays… deal with your worst problem
You didn’t spend millions on *that* player because you thought they’re rubbish. And that shiny new player that just scored a hat-trick isn’t going to do that every week, or probably ever again. You can’t predict a player’s performance in any one given week - but the history of football tells us we do have a good idea of how they’ll do over a longer time period. Rather than sub out a decent player who could easily do the business next weekend, concentrate your precious free transfers on your biggest problem - a player who is injured, out of favour or not playing the way you expected. React to changing information, not just a one-off outcome.
7. Captain the best players (generally)
The best, most-proven players cost a load of money because they’re really good at football. You might think Midfielder X from that promoted side is due a big haul, but let’s face it - he’ll probably still be outscored by Mo Salah. Captaincy is *HUGE* in FPL (double points). The bar for a captain gamble should be high.
DISCLAIMER: This is one of those rules to be broken at the right time - going for a “differential” (low-owned) player as captain can really rocket your overall rank if they return big points. But in general, you paid the big money for big players - so get your money’s worth.
8. Make transfers as late as possible if you can
It is massively tempting, especially after a bad Gameweek, to want to dispatch a player from your side straight after a game, so you never have to see them again stinking up the place. But in FPL, it’s all about information. If you can, wait until after pre-match press conferences (generally on a Thursday and Friday for weekend games) before making your transfer - injury updates are crucial and sometimes, just sometimes, managers tell the truth. There might be times that you gamble on making an early transfer to get a player before they go up in price - but it can go very wrong.
9. Look at these TWO simple underlying stats
DON’T DESPAIR… this is not The Matrix - you don’t need a maths degree or even a spreadsheet. The only two “underlying stats” you need are xG (expected goals) and xA (expected assists) over a decent amount of time. These tell us how many goals or assists a player or team should be getting based on the positions they get into - so we can look at whether players have been lucky, unlucky or whether this underlying data is changing. If a player’s underlying data remains good, it can help us be patient. We’ll regularly look at these stats through the season.
It is true that some players have great underlying stats but can’t hit a barn door with a banjo (Adama Traore), but these lads are rare. FBREF is a great (free) source of xG/xA stats. Top xGi (expected goal involvement) from last season below - this is per 90 mins, not including penalties:
10. Read an excellent weekly newsletter to make your life easier
But you already are, so… tick. Make sure you’re signed up, though:
PS - Own goals are setting a high standard…
A great miss last week - probably won’t be beaten. And a worldie of an own goal this week. Lovely turn, the keeper was nowhere.
Please get in touch with any FPL dilemmas or general football internet gold. Remember the DEADLINES and see you next week! I’m on Twitter here. Please help me grow FPL Is Life by sharing… thanks!