***DOUBLE GAMEWEEK 35 DEADLINE: SATURDAY - 11:00 GMT***
There’s been a decent amount of FPL flops this season - just ask anyone who used their Free Hit chip back in Gameweek 29. If you got above 20 points that week, you were doing well. It couldn’t have been more different at the weekend - Crystal Palace’s Mateta basically beat that entire Gameweek score single-handedly - in one game. Palace - picked out in the last edition as one of the big teams for everyone using the Free Hit - turned in to prime Barcelona for all those who had brought three Palace players in. Eze, Olise and Mateta all hauled in points, and their second game is tonight. Then the Arsenal Doublers smashed it - White, Havertz were popular. Some season-changing scores out there. Congrats to all that got the big points.
This week, it’s another big one - Spurs and Chelsea now have two Double Gameweeks in three weeks, so while they’re flawed teams, they are now officially FPL catnip. Lots of Wildcards this week, too, so we’ll take a look at some drafts. We’re getting to the end of the season now, so please share so FPL Is Life keeps growing. Thanks!
Got a transfer dilemma? Gone Double Gameweek Blind? Email me: fplislife@substack.com
Spurs & Chelsea, it’s time to deliver
I’m not happy about this either, but in pure FPL terms, Spurs and Chelsea suddenly find themselves at the top of this list. That’s because they both have a Double Gameweek this week. They then have another, as do Newcastle, Man City, Man Utd and Brighton, in Gameweek 37. Below is a list sorted by difficulty, with best fixtures at the top. It’s subjective, obviously, but Chelsea, Spurs, Newcastle, the Manchester clubs and (perhaps) Brighton are there to be targeted. Palmer will be the big captain this week and is essential - and Son will now be a very popular transfer in.
The Chelsea contenders
Only in FPL could the players from a team that just got hosed 5-0 be sought after, but this is what Double Gameweeks do. At least vs Arsenal, Chelsea answered the question of where they’d be without Cole Palmer. Chelsea come right at the top of the fixture ticker thanks to their two Double Gameweeks being slightly more friendly than Spurs. I have to warn you that a serious number of FPL managers are going to be bringing in Nico Jackson, despite the missed chances (Jackson's had 25 big chances and missed 18 before last night). Gusto is the obvious attacking defender to go for, but he has had constant niggles this season, so one to monitor. Going for Disasi or Petrovic may be safer for minutes. My ranked Chelsea picks:
Cole Palmer
Nico Jackson
Gusto/Petrovic
Spurs options… fitness doubts make it hard
Spurs are another team clearly not in form and Son through the middle just doesn’t seem to have the seem potency as when he’s out on the left. I make them 13th for Expected Goal data in the last eight Gameweeks (excluding penalties). But at this point in the season, it’s hard to resist the extra fixtures - though Arsenal/Chelsea this week and Burnley/Man City in Gameweek 37 isn’t great. I suspect even a lot of people with a Wildcard may not go for three Spurs players. Son is still the talisman - while it’s been a tough season, he is still 12th overall for Expected Goal Involvement per 90 minutes in the whole league. There are actually two Spurs players above him - Brennan Johnson (see below), and Richarlison - he has obviously been out, but could be back in contention now. As for Maddison, his underlying data has been poor since the 4-0 win over Aston Villa - but Wildcarders may see him as a calculated gamble.
Defence is simpler now - Udogie is out for the season so the attacking option left is Porro. He, of course, is also a doubt - but he’s the clear pick in defence if there’s news he’s fit. My Spurs picks:
Son
Porro
Maddison
Here’s why people are buying Newcastle players
They play Sheffield Utd this Gameweek, so that obviously makes them interesting (apologies to blades fans). They then have Burnley before their Double Gameweek, so it’s unsurprising that they’re being discussed. Trippier sounds like he’s out though, so that’s a big blow. Schar or Burn are the defensive options, depending on budget. Clearly, Gordon and Isak are the picks in attack. Wilson is back, but Isak is playing so well, he’s surely their guy for the run in.
This week’s Wildcard could really go wrong
Lots of people are Wildcarding this week to set up for both the Double Gameweeks. Many will also play the Bench Boost (when bench points count) in the big Double Gameweek 37. I’m among those deploying this tactic, but there are big dangers to it - as we’ve seen, it basically means picking Spurs/Chelsea players over the likes of Liverpool & Arsenal - seeing that in black and white, you can see how it can go wrong.
So it is a big fork in the road here - the ownership of players like Salah, Saka, Watkins will plunge down and they suddenly become closer to differentials. So when we look at the drafts below, anyone on a Wildcard should give close thought to whether they want to go all out with Double Gameweek players. It’s not obligatory.
This front eight will be everywhere
Good defensive picks are suddenly really thin on the ground, especially among the Double Gameweek teams both this week and in Gameweek 37 - but there are clear attackers to go for now and the below Front Eight will be very popular in Wildcards. We’ve gone through Son, Palmer, Gordon, Isak and Jackson already. Haaland and Foden speak for themselves. Bruno is another player from a poor team - but his FPL returns speak for themselves. He has 13 returns in the last 15 games - and penalties.
Wildcard Draft 1 - Bench Boost remaining
This is a pretty good stab at the Wildcard template by FPL Harry on YouTube. He’s gone All In with Spurs and Chelsea, plus three Newcastle - and that front eight we discussed earlier. I understand the Gvardiol pick (Dias is the other option), but Man City defence is such a lottery still that Wildcarders should at least consider Ederson. Remember we need injury news on Porro, Gusto and Spurs generally - so look out for that. You see what I mean about a lack of Arsenal and Liverpool with this strategy?
Wildcard Draft 2 - added KDB (& no Bench Boost)
KDB’s underlying data hasn’t been that stellar, which is why Bruno is the easy choice given how much KDB is… but with the title race alive and well, KDB could be a great differential option. Those who don’t need to use the Bench Boost in Gameweek 37 (and fill up on Double Gameweek players) may have more freedom to get him. Downgrading Bruno to Garnacho is an obvious cash cow (Rashford is now an injury doubt).
How the league should look*
*well, if you purely go off the expected points that would be generated from the Expected Goals data produced by each team this season. It tells us what our eyes have been telling us for some time - that Man Utd being seventh is a miracle. They are really over-performing their xG, along with… Spurs. Chelsea should be better off according the xG data - a point Poch has made after games.
Please get in touch with any FPL dilemmas or general football internet gold. PS - I’m on Twitter here. Pics always link to the original source where possible. Please help me grow FPL Is Life by sharing… thanks! Typos entirely deliberate, but thanks for noticing.